Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: volatility_elevated (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-001 | Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure disruption risk is sustaining an upward risk premium in natural gas pricing. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 56 |
| natural_gas | B-002 | Headline-driven volatility is elevated; price action may overshoot intraday as risk signals cluster without clear fundamental counterweights (storage/weather) in the admitted corpus. | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260412T220000Z-natural_gas", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure disruption risk is sustaining an upward risk premium in natural gas pricing.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "pipeline_infrastructure", "lng_export_flows", "production_outages" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Headline-driven volatility is elevated; price action may overshoot intraday as risk signals cluster without clear fundamental counterweights (storage/weather) in the admitted corpus.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "pipeline_infrastructure", "lng_export_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-001", "B-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 20, "B": 3, "C": 1, "D": 22, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 3, "fresh_6_24h": 4, "stale_gt_24h": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Signal stack is dominated by geopolitical/infrastructure narratives that can de-escalate quickly even without counterevidence in-corpus." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "flag": "arena_coverage_imbalanced", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Driver arenas requested include weather demand and storage levels, but admitted evidence is heavily skewed toward geopolitics and infrastructure risk." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "flag": "volatility_elevated", "severity": "high", "rationale": "Late-surge risk clusters (infrastructure + maritime/security) raise near-term gap/spike likelihood." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) independent confirmations of disruption/escalation without offsetting de-escalation signals." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "High-velocity geopolitical/infrastructure headlines continue to refresh within successive hours." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation / restoration news appears from 2+ independent sources inside a 2\u20136h window." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], 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"dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 57, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 57, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 57, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state unavailable in provided inputs; state_change set to 'unchanged' by conservative fallback.", "Admitted set is dominated by geopolitics/infrastructure/LNG flow narratives; storage and weather fundamentals not explicitly present in surviving trend labels." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }