Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: N/A
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: supply_demand_offset_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-12 19:33 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption + battery supply-chain activity dominates the latest 24h evidence flow. 58 up accelerating 6h false 44
lithium B-LI-002 Next-24h lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive but is vulnerable to supply-expansion narratives (extraction/refining capacity) diluting upside follow-through. 62 up stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-20260412T193314Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T19:33:14Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption + battery supply-chain activity dominates the latest 24h evidence flow.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "ev_policy_subsidies"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Next-24h lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive but is vulnerable to supply-expansion narratives (extraction/refining capacity) diluting upside follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "lithium_mining_supply",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 70,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 112,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_present": true,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_present": true,
 "stale_gt_72h_context_present": true,
 "notes": [
 "Fresh evidence observed across multiple admitted trends with newest timestamps on 2026-04-12 (UTC).",
 "Some driver threads span >7d; treated as background context, not the sole basis for direction."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "supply_demand_offset_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand-side EV/battery growth signals are strong, but parallel extraction/refining expansion narratives can cap upside and raise whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "indirect_driver_mapping_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A portion of the admitted corpus is EV/battery-policy driven (indirect to lithium futures price) rather than direct spot/futures pricing evidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while net directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and no fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence cluster appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal-watch if hourly directional_score_signed drops below +20 alongside a contradiction_ratio uptick or a new supply-expansion cluster."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market synthesis enforced.",
 "No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by mixed driver interpretation (demand-strength vs supply-expansion).",
 "State_change set to new_bullish using an implicit neutral prior because no prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory was supplied in this run."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}