Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: N/A
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: supply_demand_offset_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-12 19:33 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption + battery supply-chain activity dominates the latest 24h evidence flow. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Next-24h lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive but is vulnerable to supply-expansion narratives (extraction/refining capacity) diluting upside follow-through. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-20260412T193314Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T19:33:14Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption + battery supply-chain activity dominates the latest 24h evidence flow.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"ev_policy_subsidies"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Next-24h lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive but is vulnerable to supply-expansion narratives (extraction/refining capacity) diluting upside follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"lithium_mining_supply",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 70,
"B": 7,
"C": 5,
"D": 112,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_present": true,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_present": true,
"stale_gt_72h_context_present": true,
"notes": [
"Fresh evidence observed across multiple admitted trends with newest timestamps on 2026-04-12 (UTC).",
"Some driver threads span >7d; treated as background context, not the sole basis for direction."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "supply_demand_offset_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand-side EV/battery growth signals are strong, but parallel extraction/refining expansion narratives can cap upside and raise whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_mapping_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A portion of the admitted corpus is EV/battery-policy driven (indirect to lithium futures price) rather than direct spot/futures pricing evidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while net directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and no fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence cluster appears."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal-watch if hourly directional_score_signed drops below +20 alongside a contradiction_ratio uptick or a new supply-expansion cluster."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market synthesis enforced.",
"No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by mixed driver interpretation (demand-strength vs supply-expansion).",
"State_change set to new_bullish using an implicit neutral prior because no prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory was supplied in this run."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}