Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001-24H | Demand-side narrative (EV adoption + battery chemistry progress) remains supportive for lithium pricing over the next 24h. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| lithium | B-LI-002-6H | Near-term (6h) lithium sentiment is mildly bullish but prone to intraday chop due to theme-to-price translation uncertainty. | 56 | up | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
| lithium | B-LI-003-24H | Supply-side policy/regulatory headlines (Chile/Argentina and broader refining/extraction capacity themes) increase volatility risk and can dampen directional follow-through. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260412T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001-24H",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Demand-side narrative (EV adoption + battery chemistry progress) remains supportive for lithium pricing over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"battery_chemistry_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002-6H",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium sentiment is mildly bullish but prone to intraday chop due to theme-to-price translation uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"market_perception_flow",
"ev_policy_subsidies"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003-24H",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side policy/regulatory headlines (Chile/Argentina and broader refining/extraction capacity themes) increase volatility risk and can dampen directional follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lithium_mining_supply",
"refining_capacity",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001-24H",
"B-LI-002-6H",
"B-LI-003-24H"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 26,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_window_0_6h_records_est": 6,
"fresh_window_6_24h_records_est": 18,
"stale_over_24h_records_est": 60,
"basis": "approx_from_trend_level_recency_proxies_and_samples; overlap_between_trends_unknown"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Several supporting themes span >7d even though fresh confirmations exist; risk of narrative persistence exceeding price response."
},
{
"flag": "theme_to_price_translation_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Inputs are largely EV/battery narratives rather than explicit lithium futures price/flow signals."
},
{
"flag": "data_granularity_limit_intraday",
"severity": "low",
"note": "No per-record timestamp distribution provided here; intraday inflection detection is conservative."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive demand/EV/battery headlines persist in the next 6h without meaningful opposing supply/weak-demand evidence."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If multiple independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear (e.g., demand slowdown, oversupply/pricing pressure, policy restrictions)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory supply-side news flow accelerates (Chile/Argentina/China refining) or contradiction rises materially."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If net sentiment drops into neutral (directional_score_signed between -19 and +19) across multiple recent buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit counterevidence/contradictions provided in admitted corpus; reversal risk scored primarily from contradiction absence (low) rather than price-based signals.",
"Authority tier counts and freshness mix are approximate because trend evidence bundles can overlap; unique-source de-duplication not available in this payload slice.",
"Timeseries values are conservative bucket-shapes inferred from trend-level recency/temporal profiles rather than per-record event histograms."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}