Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T23:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-001 |
Near-term gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed because most supportive risk-off/geopolitical narratives in the admitted corpus are stale versus the 24–72h window; fresh confirmation is insufficient to assert a clean directional bias. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-002 |
A small, fresh risk-escalation seed (non-materialised / low-evidence) marginally lifts upside tail-risk attention for gold, but evidence density is too low to clear the minimum directional threshold. |
54 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-12T23:30:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Near-term gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed because most supportive risk-off/geopolitical narratives in the admitted corpus are stale versus the 24\u201372h window; fresh confirmation is insufficient to assert a clean directional bias.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "A small, fresh risk-escalation seed (non-materialised / low-evidence) marginally lifts upside tail-risk attention for gold, but evidence density is too low to clear the minimum directional threshold.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 67,
"B": 6,
"C": 0,
"D": 110,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 1,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 7
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most admitted supportive narratives are older than 72h (many are ~1+ month old versus the requested 30d window), so they are treated as background only and conviction is capped."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_recent",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fresh (<=72h) evidence mapped to gold is below the minimum threshold; a single seed-level anomaly is insufficient to assert direction."
},
{
"flag": "window_mismatch_30d",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A large share of admitted items cluster around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is ~34\u201339 days before 2026-04-12."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while fresh mapped evidence count < 3 or freshness_confidence remains low."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if >=2 independent fresh (<=6h) geopolitical-risk records appear or contradiction_ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh (<=24h) multi-source risk-off confirmation emerges (>=3 independent records) without comparable fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch if a fresh (<=24h) cluster of USD-strengthening / real-yield-up signals appears and outweighs risk-off evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to gold.",
"Admitted corpus is dominated by 2026-03-04..2026-03-09 items (stale vs 2026-04-12 and partly outside the requested 30d window); stale suppression applied.",
"Fresh mapped evidence in the last 72h does not meet min_evidence_threshold=3; directional output held at neutral_mixed.",
"No explicit fresh counterevidence cluster detected; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
"source_tier_counts are aggregated from admitted bundles and are not deduplicated at record level."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}