Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-12 07:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-1 Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound than trend directionally over the next 24h because the currently-mapped drivers are stale and sparse. 58 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-2 Gold futures have modest upside risk over the next 6–24h if geopolitical-risk headlines re-accelerate, but the current mapped evidence is not fresh enough to sustain a bullish call. 46 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-3 Gold futures have modest downside risk over the next 6–24h if real rates/US yields firm, but the current mapped evidence is insufficiently fresh to sustain a bearish call. 44 down fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-12T07:05:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T07:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-1", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound than trend directionally over the next 24h because the currently-mapped drivers are stale and sparse.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "data_sparsity", "stale_context_overhang" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-GOLD-2", "B-GOLD-3" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-2", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures have modest upside risk over the next 6\u201324h if geopolitical-risk headlines re-accelerate, but the current mapped evidence is not fresh enough to sustain a bullish call.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-GOLD-1", "B-GOLD-3" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-3", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures have modest downside risk over the next 6\u201324h if real rates/US yields firm, but the current mapped evidence is insufficiently fresh to sustain a bearish call.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "usd_strength" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-GOLD-1", "B-GOLD-2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 27, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-GOLD-1", "B-GOLD-2", "B-GOLD-3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 1 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 3 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "detail": "Mapped-to-gold evidence count meets minimum only via a few singleton VIP items; no meaningful fresh confirmation in the last 24h." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "detail": "Most mapped-to-gold evidence is >72h old (clustered around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), triggering strong recency downweighting and stale suppression." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Competing macro drivers (geopolitical-risk bid vs real-rate pressure) present as background themes, but without fresh dominance." }, { "flag": "unmapped_signal_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Many high-volume geopolitical trends were detected but could not be confidently mapped to gold by alias; they are excluded from directional synthesis." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Until fresh, gold-specific evidence appears (e.g., USD/real-rate impulse, ETF flows, central-bank flows, or explicit gold market disruption confirmation)." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a new, corroborated geopolitics escalation headline cluster emerges within a 0\u20136h window." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing macro evidence arrives (e.g., yields up + USD up) while geopolitics de-escalates, or vice versa." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, 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"2026-04-11T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, 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"conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Primary 5B trend set is dominated by geopolitics but lacks explicit gold/XAU/bullion aliasing; per mapping rules these were not force-mapped to gold.", "Gold-mapped evidence is primarily singleton VIP items (e.g., gold trade disruption / GLD / gold market logistics) dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; treated as stale background with strong downweighting.", "Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change set conservatively to unchanged." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }