Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_supply_disruption_vs_supply_unlock
  • generated_at: 2026-04-12T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper futures bias remains upward, supported by fresh supply-side disruption/regulatory uncertainty signals plus ongoing structurallyeficit narrative. 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
copper B2 Policy/legal changes that unlock new copper supply (e.g., project approvals) could cap upside and increase two-sided trading in the next 24h. 44 down stable 24h false 54
copper B3 Trade-policy signalling and critical-minerals alliance headlines raise volatility risk more than they clarify direction over the next 6–24h. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-cis-copper-20260412T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias remains upward, supported by fresh supply-side disruption/regulatory uncertainty signals plus ongoing structural-deficit narrative.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Policy/legal changes that unlock new copper supply (e.g., project approvals) could cap upside and increase two-sided trading in the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy signalling and critical-minerals alliance headlines raise volatility risk more than they clarify direction over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 24,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "stale_24_72h": 3,
 "stale_72h_plus": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_supply_disruption_vs_supply_unlock",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Fresh supply disruption/regulatory risk signals coexist with fresh policy signals that may unlock future supply; raises reversal/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_volatility_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Trade-policy signalling is prominent and tends to transmit as volatility rather than clean direction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "background_narrative_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Several supporting themes are persistent (multi-week) and should be downweighted versus truly fresh catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent fresh supply-disruption confirmations arrive within the next 6h AND contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.35."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-expansion/approval headlines cluster (2+ independent records) within 6h OR net directional_score_signed drops below +10 for 2 consecutive buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines intensify and contradiction_ratio exceeds 0.5 (two-sided evidence spike) in the next 6\u201312h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse (fresh_evidence_count <= 1 per 3h) while contradiction_ratio remains elevated (>= 0.4)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'copper'; analysis constrained to single market.",
 "No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Counterevidence exists (future supply unlock themes) but does not meet late-breaking invalidation threshold; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}