Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_supply_disruption_vs_supply_unlock
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Near-term copper futures bias remains upward, supported by fresh supply-side disruption/regulatory uncertainty signals plus ongoing structurallyeficit narrative. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B2 | Policy/legal changes that unlock new copper supply (e.g., project approvals) could cap upside and increase two-sided trading in the next 24h. | 44 | down | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B3 | Trade-policy signalling and critical-minerals alliance headlines raise volatility risk more than they clarify direction over the next 6–24h. | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-cis-copper-20260412T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures bias remains upward, supported by fresh supply-side disruption/regulatory uncertainty signals plus ongoing structural-deficit narrative.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2",
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Policy/legal changes that unlock new copper supply (e.g., project approvals) could cap upside and increase two-sided trading in the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy signalling and critical-minerals alliance headlines raise volatility risk more than they clarify direction over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 3,
"C": 1,
"D": 24,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"stale_24_72h": 3,
"stale_72h_plus": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_supply_disruption_vs_supply_unlock",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Fresh supply disruption/regulatory risk signals coexist with fresh policy signals that may unlock future supply; raises reversal/whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "trade_policy_volatility_risk",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Trade-policy signalling is prominent and tends to transmit as volatility rather than clean direction."
},
{
"flag": "background_narrative_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Several supporting themes are persistent (multi-week) and should be downweighted versus truly fresh catalysts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent fresh supply-disruption confirmations arrive within the next 6h AND contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.35."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-expansion/approval headlines cluster (2+ independent records) within 6h OR net directional_score_signed drops below +10 for 2 consecutive buckets."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines intensify and contradiction_ratio exceeds 0.5 (two-sided evidence spike) in the next 6\u201312h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse (fresh_evidence_count <= 1 per 3h) while contradiction_ratio remains elevated (>= 0.4)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'copper'; analysis constrained to single market.",
"No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"Counterevidence exists (future supply unlock themes) but does not meet late-breaking invalidation threshold; kill-switch not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}