Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_proxy_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-6h-001 | Near-term upside bias in coffee futures as fresh origin-risk and supply/logistics-cost narratives dominate the corpus. | 64 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 44 |
| coffee | B-coffee-24h-001 | Over the next 24 hours, coffee futures directional edge stays positive, but the thesis is moderately fragile because much of the evidence is macro/supply-chain themed rather than a single, clean coffee-specific catalyst. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260412T220000Z-coffee-KC-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term upside bias in coffee futures as fresh origin-risk and supply/logistics-cost narratives dominate the corpus.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Origin supply risk signals (e.g., Colombia agricultural risk cluster) remain active and recently refreshed", "Broad agriculture input-cost / labour-cost pressure narratives (potentially supportive of higher commodity pricing)", "Logistics and trade-disruption narratives remain present (shipping/freight friction as a supportive backdrop)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, coffee futures directional edge stays positive, but the thesis is moderately fragile because much of the evidence is macro/supply-chain themed rather than a single, clean coffee-specific catalyst.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Persistent cost-pressure narratives across agriculture", "Ongoing global trade/logistics disruption themes", "Demand/retail expansion narratives are supportive but less directly price-diagnostic" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-6h-001", "B-coffee-24h-001" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 88, "B": 3, "C": 5, "D": 175, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_signals_0_24h": 6, "recent_signals_24_72h": 0, "stale_signals_gt72h": 0 }, "regime_state": "tightening" } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "coffee", "flag": "macro_proxy_risk", "severity": "medium", "note": "A meaningful share of admitted support is macro/logistics/cost-themed; coffee-specific price-diagnostic granularity is moderate, increasing fragility despite fresh updates." }, { "market": "coffee", "flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang", "severity": "low", "note": "Authority-tier coverage exists, but the corpus mix still skews to lower-tier domains; treated as a mild confirmation limiter (not counterevidence)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain if fresh origin-risk / cost-pressure records continue to print within the next 6 hours without credible opposing evidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional logistics disruption headlines cluster inside a 2-hour window (risk of sharp repricing)." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to medium only if 2+ independent, fresh (<=2h) coffee-specific easing-supply signals appear (none detected in current admitted set)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 10, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market scope enforced.", "No explicit contradictory records were supplied in the admitted set; reversal risk kept low.", "State-change computed with unknown prior; emitted as unchanged." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }