Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: reversal_watch (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T06:32:10Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COFFEE-001 | Near-term coffee futures are more likely to trade higher due to supply-side risk premia (origin crop/weather risk and rising production/input costs). | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-002 | Freight/shipping geopolitics and route-disruption narratives are sustaining a risk premium that supports coffee futures on dips. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-003 | Upside may be capped if the newest cycle shifts toward 'normalising' supply-chain narratives (improved trade infrastructure / reduced disruption), creating a short-term pullback risk. | 41 | down | fading | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-COFFEE-20260412T063210Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T06:32:10Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures are more likely to trade higher due to supply-side risk premia (origin crop/weather risk and rising production/input costs).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Origin supply / crop risk signals (e.g., Colombia risk cluster)",
"Rising agricultural input/production cost narratives",
"Fresh multi-source reinforcement inside the last 24h"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Evidence suggesting easing logistics / trade infrastructure improvements that could reduce risk premia",
"Demand-side/retail narrative dominance that may not translate cleanly to futures pricing"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Freight/shipping geopolitics and route-disruption narratives are sustaining a risk premium that supports coffee futures on dips.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Shipping/freight disruption themes (trade/logistics risk spillover)",
"Cross-commodity logistics sensitivity (freight cost pass-through expectations)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Counter-narratives about logistics normalisation / infrastructure improvements"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Upside may be capped if the newest cycle shifts toward 'normalising' supply-chain narratives (improved trade infrastructure / reduced disruption), creating a short-term pullback risk.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Positive trade-infrastructure narratives (potential easing of constraints)",
"Mean-reversion tendency when risk premia narratives decelerate"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh cost-pressure and origin-risk reinforcement remaining dominant in the most recent window"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-002",
"B-COFFEE-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 153,
"B": 4,
"C": 5,
"D": 338,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_records_est": 18,
"fresh_6_24h_records_est": 140,
"fresh_24_72h_records_est": 220,
"stale_72h_plus_records_est": 80,
"basis": "trend_level_recency_proxies_and_samples; per-record timestamp histogram not provided"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "reversal_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Some admitted themes imply easing constraints (trade infrastructure / logistics normalisation) which could reduce the current risk premium if they accelerate."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "narrative_translation_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Part of the corpus is consumer/retail-company centric; mapping to futures direction is plausible but not perfectly direct, increasing fragility."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "timeseries_proxy_build",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Signal timeseries buckets are synthesised from trend-level recency proxies (not full per-record timestamps)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish-bias watch if fresh origin/cost-pressure evidence remains dominant and contradiction_ratio stays below ~0.30."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal-watch if 'logistics normalisation / improved infrastructure' narratives materially increase in the most recent 6h and directional_score_signed falls toward neutral."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility-watch if fresh evidence density rises while contradiction_ratio also rises (risk-premium whipsaw)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
"One trend (PTPN IV PalmCo climate-change) treated as weakly related to coffee and not admitted to avoid forced mapping.",
"No explicit contradictory record-sets were provided; counterevidence is inferred from mixed directional implications (logistics easing vs disruption/cost pressure).",
"Signal timeseries is a conservative proxy built from trend-level recency indicators and does not represent a full per-record timestamp allocation."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}