Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: reversal_watch (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-12T06:32:10Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-001 Near-term coffee futures are more likely to trade higher due to supply-side risk premia (origin crop/weather risk and rising production/input costs). 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
coffee B-COFFEE-002 Freight/shipping geopolitics and route-disruption narratives are sustaining a risk premium that supports coffee futures on dips. 58 up stable 6h false 48
coffee B-COFFEE-003 Upside may be capped if the newest cycle shifts toward 'normalising' supply-chain narratives (improved trade infrastructure / reduced disruption), creating a short-term pullback risk. 41 down fading 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-COFFEE-20260412T063210Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T06:32:10Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures are more likely to trade higher due to supply-side risk premia (origin crop/weather risk and rising production/input costs).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Origin supply / crop risk signals (e.g., Colombia risk cluster)",
 "Rising agricultural input/production cost narratives",
 "Fresh multi-source reinforcement inside the last 24h"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Evidence suggesting easing logistics / trade infrastructure improvements that could reduce risk premia",
 "Demand-side/retail narrative dominance that may not translate cleanly to futures pricing"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Freight/shipping geopolitics and route-disruption narratives are sustaining a risk premium that supports coffee futures on dips.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Shipping/freight disruption themes (trade/logistics risk spillover)",
 "Cross-commodity logistics sensitivity (freight cost pass-through expectations)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Counter-narratives about logistics normalisation / infrastructure improvements"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Upside may be capped if the newest cycle shifts toward 'normalising' supply-chain narratives (improved trade infrastructure / reduced disruption), creating a short-term pullback risk.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Positive trade-infrastructure narratives (potential easing of constraints)",
 "Mean-reversion tendency when risk premia narratives decelerate"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh cost-pressure and origin-risk reinforcement remaining dominant in the most recent window"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COFFEE-001",
 "B-COFFEE-002",
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 153,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 338,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_records_est": 18,
 "fresh_6_24h_records_est": 140,
 "fresh_24_72h_records_est": 220,
 "stale_72h_plus_records_est": 80,
 "basis": "trend_level_recency_proxies_and_samples; per-record timestamp histogram not provided"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "reversal_watch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Some admitted themes imply easing constraints (trade infrastructure / logistics normalisation) which could reduce the current risk premium if they accelerate."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "narrative_translation_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Part of the corpus is consumer/retail-company centric; mapping to futures direction is plausible but not perfectly direct, increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "timeseries_proxy_build",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Signal timeseries buckets are synthesised from trend-level recency proxies (not full per-record timestamps)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish-bias watch if fresh origin/cost-pressure evidence remains dominant and contradiction_ratio stays below ~0.30."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal-watch if 'logistics normalisation / improved infrastructure' narratives materially increase in the most recent 6h and directional_score_signed falls toward neutral."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility-watch if fresh evidence density rises while contradiction_ratio also rises (risk-premium whipsaw)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
 "One trend (PTPN IV PalmCo climate-change) treated as weakly related to coffee and not admitted to avoid forced mapping.",
 "No explicit contradictory record-sets were provided; counterevidence is inferred from mixed directional implications (logistics easing vs disruption/cost pressure).",
 "Signal timeseries is a conservative proxy built from trend-level recency indicators and does not represent a full per-record timestamp allocation."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}