Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T22:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-001 |
Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint insecurity in/around the Middle East is increasing perceived near-term supply-disruption risk, biasing Brent-linked crude prices upward. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-002 |
Signals of Saudi capacity recovery and supply-resilience messaging are reducing the probability of a sustained outage scenario, limiting upside and creating intermittent downward pressure on Brent. |
49 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-003 |
Macro-policy / risk-off framing (US policy and broader macroprudential narrative) can temporarily dampen demand expectations and cap crude rallies even as geopolitical risk rises. |
46 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-12T22:10:00Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T22:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint insecurity in/around the Middle East is increasing perceived near-term supply-disruption risk, biasing Brent-linked crude prices upward.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime chokepoints / shipping-risk premium",
"risk-of-disruption narratives with broad multi-source pickup"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Signals of Saudi capacity recovery and supply-resilience messaging are reducing the probability of a sustained outage scenario, limiting upside and creating intermittent downward pressure on Brent.",
"probability_pct": 49,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"opec_supply_policy / supply resilience",
"capacity recovery narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-policy / risk-off framing (US policy and broader macroprudential narrative) can temporarily dampen demand expectations and cap crude rallies even as geopolitical risk rises.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"policy-risk / financial-conditions tightening narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 3,
"C": 0,
"D": 27,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.52,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.4,
"older_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.08,
"older_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "high",
"label": "event_driven_volatility",
"description": "Geopolitical and maritime-security driven narratives imply sharp headline sensitivity; price response can gap on new incidents or de-escalation."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"label": "countervailing_supply_resilience",
"description": "Supply-resilience / capacity-recovery narratives provide genuine counter-pressure that can fade risk-premium spikes."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw",
"description": "Mixed driver arenas (disruption risk vs resilience/macro) raise short-horizon reversal/mean-reversion risk even with bullish bias."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If new Middle East maritime/security incident headlines print within the next 6 hours, expect directional impulse and higher intraday variance."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent reports reinforce supply-disruption risk (chokepoints, tankers, infrastructure), bullish momentum likely persists over 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / confirmed capacity restoration narratives dominate new coverage (and disruption headlines fade), upside risk-premium may unwind."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a hard invalidator emerges (official confirmation of no disruption + rapid normalization of shipping routes), conviction should be capped until corroboration."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; counter-pressure inferred from admitted supply-resilience/macro narratives (treated as counterevidence, not as contradiction records).",
"Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' for continuity."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}