Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-12T22:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint insecurity in/around the Middle East is increasing perceived near-term supply-disruption risk, biasing Brent-linked crude prices upward. 64 up accelerating 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-002 Signals of Saudi capacity recovery and supply-resilience messaging are reducing the probability of a sustained outage scenario, limiting upside and creating intermittent downward pressure on Brent. 49 down stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-003 Macro-policy / risk-off framing (US policy and broader macroprudential narrative) can temporarily dampen demand expectations and cap crude rallies even as geopolitical risk rises. 46 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-12T22:10:00Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T22:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint insecurity in/around the Middle East is increasing perceived near-term supply-disruption risk, biasing Brent-linked crude prices upward.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime chokepoints / shipping-risk premium",
 "risk-of-disruption narratives with broad multi-source pickup"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-002",
 "B-CO-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Signals of Saudi capacity recovery and supply-resilience messaging are reducing the probability of a sustained outage scenario, limiting upside and creating intermittent downward pressure on Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 49,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "opec_supply_policy / supply resilience",
 "capacity recovery narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro-policy / risk-off framing (US policy and broader macroprudential narrative) can temporarily dampen demand expectations and cap crude rallies even as geopolitical risk rises.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "policy-risk / financial-conditions tightening narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002",
 "B-CO-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 27,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.52,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.4,
 "older_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.08,
 "older_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "high",
 "label": "event_driven_volatility",
 "description": "Geopolitical and maritime-security driven narratives imply sharp headline sensitivity; price response can gap on new incidents or de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "label": "countervailing_supply_resilience",
 "description": "Supply-resilience / capacity-recovery narratives provide genuine counter-pressure that can fade risk-premium spikes."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "description": "Mixed driver arenas (disruption risk vs resilience/macro) raise short-horizon reversal/mean-reversion risk even with bullish bias."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If new Middle East maritime/security incident headlines print within the next 6 hours, expect directional impulse and higher intraday variance."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent reports reinforce supply-disruption risk (chokepoints, tankers, infrastructure), bullish momentum likely persists over 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / confirmed capacity restoration narratives dominate new coverage (and disruption headlines fade), upside risk-premium may unwind."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a hard invalidator emerges (official confirmation of no disruption + rapid normalization of shipping routes), conviction should be capped until corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 10,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; counter-pressure inferred from admitted supply-resilience/macro narratives (treated as counterevidence, not as contradiction records).",
 "Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' for continuity."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}