Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-12T08:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint/security risk are raising near-term risk premium for Brent. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Macro policy/inflation and rates messaging is adding demand-side headwind, limiting upside and increasing pullback risk. |
46 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
41 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
Inventory/physical market-tightness commentary is contributing to volatility rather than a clean one-way move. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260412-0805Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T08:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation and maritime chokepoint/security risk are raising near-term risk premium for Brent.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran/US naval and IRGC-related escalation narratives",
"Maritime chokepoint security risk (incl. Strait of Hormuz framing)",
"Broad multi-source pickup with meaningful Tier-A presence"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro policy/inflation and rates messaging is adding demand-side headwind, limiting upside and increasing pullback risk.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Inflation / central-bank policy sensitivity",
"Risk-off impulse when policy tightening narratives dominate"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Inventory/physical market-tightness commentary is contributing to volatility rather than a clean one-way move.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US inventory/policy commentary (DOE/EIA references in corpus)",
"Physical tightness/inventory discussion appearing as intermittent single-source outliers"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 190,
"B": 33,
"C": 3,
"D": 240,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate roll-up across admitted trends/VIP/risk objects (evidence-cache summary only)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 90,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 220,
"stale_gt24h_est": 80,
"note": "Estimated from signal timestamps and evidence_recency_proxy spans; not full per-record bucketing."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_volatility",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Direction is supported by fresh geopolitical/security narratives that can gap both ways on headline changes."
},
{
"flag": "macro_counterpressure_present",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Macro policy/rates sensitivity adds genuine counter-pressure (limits clean continuation despite bullish mass)."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several VIP/risk anomaly items are single-source and should be treated as fragile until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitics/chokepoint items continue to cluster (next 6h) without comparable fresh demand-destruction counter-signal."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation/route-normalisation signal appears and contradiction rises materially inside a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any official security/infrastructure incident confirmation or abrupt policy headline impacting supply/demand expectations."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse and directional score drifts back into neutral band (|score| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred from macro counter-pressure + event-driven regime (not from explicit opposing evidence records).",
"VIP/risk anomaly single-source items admitted only as low-weight risk context (echo-risk flagged), not as primary directional drivers.",
"No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied; state_change emitted as 'new_bullish' (prior unknown)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}