Snapshot
- subject_area: Wheat futures (ZW)
- target_market_code: wheat
- ticker: ZW
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-11 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wheat | B-wheat-1 | Wheat futures sentiment is biased higher over the next 6h as weather/climate disruption narratives and supply-chain/input-cost risks dominate the fresh corpus. | 62 | up | stable | 6h | false | 52 |
| wheat | B-wheat-2 | Over the next 24h, the dominant wheat narrative remains supply-risk / food-security supportive (upward price pressure), with limited explicit counterevidence in the admitted set. | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_wheat_2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Wheat futures (ZW)", "market_code": "wheat" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "wheat", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "wheat" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-wheat-1", "market": "wheat", "claim": "Wheat futures sentiment is biased higher over the next 6h as weather/climate disruption narratives and supply-chain/input-cost risks dominate the fresh corpus.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "weather_climate_impacts", "crop_conditions", "fertiliser_input_costs", "export_flows_trade_policy", "food_security_stockpiling", "black_sea_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-wheat-2", "market": "wheat", "claim": "Over the next 24h, the dominant wheat narrative remains supply-risk / food-security supportive (upward price pressure), with limited explicit counterevidence in the admitted set.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "weather_climate_impacts", "crop_conditions", "fertiliser_input_costs", "export_flows_trade_policy", "food_security_stockpiling", "black_sea_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "wheat", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-wheat-1", "B-wheat-2" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 18, "B": 1, "C": 0, "D": 30, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "newest_evidence_utc": "2026-04-10T23:50:36Z", "oldest_evidence_utc": "2026-03-25T01:35:33Z", "fresh_0_24h_present": true, "stale_over_72h_present": true } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "note": "Directional thesis is driven by risk/newsflow (weather, geopolitics, supply-chain); sentiment can flip quickly on benign updates." }, { "flag": "unknown_prior_state", "severity": "low", "note": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' as a non-assertive fallback." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "wheat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while fresh (<=24h) supply-risk/crop-condition deterioration signals remain dominant and no comparable fresh bearish corpus emerges.", "action_label": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "wheat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if mixed signals increase (contradiction emerges) or if major risk narratives fade abruptly (headline-driven reversion).", "action_label": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "wheat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Watch for volatility bursts around crop/weather and trade-policy headlines given medium reversal risk and multi-driver coupling (inputs + geopolitics).", "action_label": "volatility_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "wheat" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [], "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 0, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Directional mapping used: dominant admitted items are framed as supply/crop/weather/geopolitical risks; in wheat this is treated as upward price pressure (bullish) rather than 'negative' price direction.", "No explicit contradictions provided in workflow5b_output.contradictions; counterevidence treated as low in this cycle.", "signal_timeseries buckets omitted due to insufficient per-record timestamp distribution in the slimmed inputs (per_record_physics and full per-item timestamps not available to 6B layer).", "source_tier_counts reflects the dominant admitted high-heat trend bundle to avoid double-counting overlapping evidence across trends." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }