Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: policy_to_price_transmission_lag
- generated_at: 2026-04-11T13:40:33Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-01 |
Near-term uranium futures sentiment has an upward bias as fresh nuclear-policy/energy-security developments and uranium-mining activity signals dominate, with no material opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus. |
62 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
38 |
| uranium |
B-UR-02 |
Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment remains skewed higher on broad nuclear build/SMR innovation momentum and policy reinforcement, supporting demand expectations more than supply relief narratives. |
67 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
38 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_uranium_20260411T134033Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T13:40:33Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment has an upward bias as fresh nuclear-policy/energy-security developments and uranium-mining activity signals dominate, with no material opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Nuclear policy and regulatory support signals (multi-jurisdiction)",
"Energy-security framing increasing nuclear prioritisation",
"US uranium mining/development activity signals (Wyoming-focused)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-02",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment remains skewed higher on broad nuclear build/SMR innovation momentum and policy reinforcement, supporting demand expectations more than supply relief narratives.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained nuclear innovation/SMR narrative (Oklo/NuScale/Rolls-Royce/advanced reactors)",
"Regulatory/policy momentum (NRC/UK/EU energy-security strategy signals)",
"Uranium supply-chain and contracting attention (producer/utility focus themes)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-01",
"B-UR-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 52,
"B": 13,
"C": 27,
"D": 136,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_last_0_6h_est": 2,
"fresh_signals_last_6_24h_est": 4,
"background_context_signals_gt_24h_est": 6
},
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 46,
"regime_state": "tightening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "policy_to_price_transmission_lag",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "A large share of admitted evidence is policy/innovation themed (demand narrative) rather than direct uranium spot/futures price drivers; translation to price can lag and be nonlinear."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "low_counterevidence_visibility",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Contradiction/counter-signal records are absent in the provided admitted set; reversal detection is therefore primarily freshness-driven rather than balanced by opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "source_tier_skew_to_lower_authority",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Despite meaningful Tier-A presence, aggregate evidence mix shows substantial lower-tier volume; keep fragility non-trivial even in a bullish state."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with no fresh opposing evidence cluster (2+ independent bearish signals inside 2h)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any late-breaking market-structural invalidator appears (e.g., sudden supply restoration/shock, abrupt policy reversal headline) raising contradiction_ratio >= 0.25."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Kill-switch conditions: opposing signals age <= 2h and either 2+ independent opposing records OR 1 hard official/market-structural invalidator."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Conviction drops below 45 or directional score moves inside [-20, +20] (neutral/mixed regime)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:40:33Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:40:33Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit counterevidence/contradictions provided in admitted trend/vip sets; reversal risk derived primarily from freshness/consensus metrics.",
"State-change uses fallback (no prior trend_state_memory provided); kept as 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior neutral/bullish state."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}