Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: policy_to_price_transmission_lag
  • generated_at: 2026-04-11T13:40:33Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-01 Near-term uranium futures sentiment has an upward bias as fresh nuclear-policy/energy-security developments and uranium-mining activity signals dominate, with no material opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus. 62 up stable 6h false 38
uranium B-UR-02 Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment remains skewed higher on broad nuclear build/SMR innovation momentum and policy reinforcement, supporting demand expectations more than supply relief narratives. 67 up accelerating 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_uranium_20260411T134033Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T13:40:33Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-01",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment has an upward bias as fresh nuclear-policy/energy-security developments and uranium-mining activity signals dominate, with no material opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Nuclear policy and regulatory support signals (multi-jurisdiction)",
 "Energy-security framing increasing nuclear prioritisation",
 "US uranium mining/development activity signals (Wyoming-focused)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-02",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment remains skewed higher on broad nuclear build/SMR innovation momentum and policy reinforcement, supporting demand expectations more than supply relief narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained nuclear innovation/SMR narrative (Oklo/NuScale/Rolls-Royce/advanced reactors)",
 "Regulatory/policy momentum (NRC/UK/EU energy-security strategy signals)",
 "Uranium supply-chain and contracting attention (producer/utility focus themes)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-01",
 "B-UR-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 52,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 27,
 "D": 136,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_last_0_6h_est": 2,
 "fresh_signals_last_6_24h_est": 4,
 "background_context_signals_gt_24h_est": 6
 },
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 46,
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "policy_to_price_transmission_lag",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "A large share of admitted evidence is policy/innovation themed (demand narrative) rather than direct uranium spot/futures price drivers; translation to price can lag and be nonlinear."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "low_counterevidence_visibility",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Contradiction/counter-signal records are absent in the provided admitted set; reversal detection is therefore primarily freshness-driven rather than balanced by opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "source_tier_skew_to_lower_authority",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Despite meaningful Tier-A presence, aggregate evidence mix shows substantial lower-tier volume; keep fragility non-trivial even in a bullish state."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with no fresh opposing evidence cluster (2+ independent bearish signals inside 2h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any late-breaking market-structural invalidator appears (e.g., sudden supply restoration/shock, abrupt policy reversal headline) raising contradiction_ratio >= 0.25."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Kill-switch conditions: opposing signals age <= 2h and either 2+ independent opposing records OR 1 hard official/market-structural invalidator."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Conviction drops below 45 or directional score moves inside [-20, +20] (neutral/mixed regime)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:40:33Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:40:33Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:40:33Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:40:33Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:40:33Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:40:33Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:40:33Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:40:33Z",
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:40:33Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:40:33Z",
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:40:33Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:40:33Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:40:33Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:40:33Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit counterevidence/contradictions provided in admitted trend/vip sets; reversal risk derived primarily from freshness/consensus metrics.",
 "State-change uses fallback (no prior trend_state_memory provided); kept as 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior neutral/bullish state."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}