Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures (NG)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: NG
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: input_gate_degraded_missing_5B (severity: high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-11 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | NG_B1_LNG_CHOKEPOINT_UPSIDE_24H | Recent geopolitical headlines around Strait-of-Hormuz disruption raise near-term LNG flow uncertainty, which can add upside risk to natural gas futures over the next 24 hours (via global gas/LNG tightness and risk premium). | 56 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 72 |
| natural_gas | NG_B2_REOPENING_EXPECTATIONS_CAP_6H | Statements implying the chokepoint could reopen soon reduce persistence of the risk premium, creating whipsaw risk and capping directional follow-through over the next 6 hours. | 54 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_natural_gas_2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures (NG)", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "NG_B1_LNG_CHOKEPOINT_UPSIDE_24H", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Recent geopolitical headlines around Strait-of-Hormuz disruption raise near-term LNG flow uncertainty, which can add upside risk to natural gas futures over the next 24 hours (via global gas/LNG tightness and risk premium).", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lng_export_flows", "energy_geopolitics" ], "contradicted_by": [ "NG_B2_REOPENING_EXPECTATIONS_CAP_6H" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "NG_B2_REOPENING_EXPECTATIONS_CAP_6H", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Statements implying the chokepoint could reopen soon reduce persistence of the risk premium, creating whipsaw risk and capping directional follow-through over the next 6 hours.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [ "NG_B1_LNG_CHOKEPOINT_UPSIDE_24H" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 45, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "NG_B1_LNG_CHOKEPOINT_UPSIDE_24H", "NG_B2_REOPENING_EXPECTATIONS_CAP_6H" ], "source_tier_counts": { "tier_a": 0, "tier_b": 2, "tier_c": 3, "unknown": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 4, "fresh_6_24h": 1, "stale_gt_24h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "input_gate_degraded_missing_5B", "severity": "high", "rationale": "workflow5b_output (trend physics/state memory) not provided; direction is therefore suppressed to neutral_mixed despite fresh headlines." }, { "flag": "headline_driven_volatility_geopolitics", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Geopolitical updates can rapidly flip perceived LNG/energy risk premium." }, { "flag": "contradiction_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Coexisting 'disruption persists' and 'reopen soon' narratives increase short-horizon whipsaw probability." }, { "flag": "cross_market_linkage_LNG_vs_US_NG_basis", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Hormuz/LNG disruption is an indirect driver for NG futures; transmission to NG can be non-linear and time-lagged." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while direction remains neutral_mixed and conviction < 55 under degraded physics input." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if new confirmed shipping/mine-clearance updates arrive (especially within <=2h) that materially change LNG flow expectations." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If near-term narrative flips decisively (clear reopen vs prolonged closure) and contradiction_ratio drops, expect a fast regime shift from unstable to tightening/loosening." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, 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"fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.5, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 14, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 0, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "workflow5b_output not provided; directional physics/state-memory unavailable. Output suppressed to neutral_mixed per client_lens.require_directional_conviction + suppress_direction_if_degraded.", "Timeseries derived conservatively from sparse headline timestamps only; conviction capped and fragility elevated." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }