Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-11T08:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-01 Geopolitical-risk and supply/logistics narratives provide a mild upside bias, but evidence is mostly stale (early March) and not accelerating in last 24h. 54 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-02 Near-term gold direction is mixed/rangebound because fresh market-direct evidence on real rates, USD impulse and ETF flows is sparse in the most recent 0–24h window. 58 mixed stable 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260411T080000Z-gold", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 36, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-01", "market": "gold", "claim": "Geopolitical-risk and supply/logistics disruption narratives provide a mild upside bias for gold, but the evidence in this feed is mostly stale (early March) and not accelerating in the last 24h window.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk", "physical_gold_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "stale_context_overhang", "lack_of_fresh_confirmation_last_24h" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-02", "market": "gold", "claim": "Near-term gold direction is mixed/rangebound because fresh, market-direct evidence on real rates, USD impulse, and ETF flows is sparse in the most recent (0\u201324h) window; conviction is therefore capped despite background narratives.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "usd_strength", "etf_investment_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 32, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-GOLD-01", "B-GOLD-02" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 22, "B": 1, "C": 0, "D": 25, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 1, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_over_72h": 5 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "description": "Most gold-relevant evidence in the admitted set is >72h old (predominantly 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), triggering stale suppression and capping conviction." }, { "flag_id": "data_sparsity_last_24h", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "description": "Very limited market-direct gold evidence in the last 24h; signal quality degraded for directional calls." }, { "flag_id": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "description": "With low freshness confidence, any new rates/USD/geopolitical print could rapidly re-shape direction; reversal risk elevated to medium despite low observed counterevidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Until \u22653 fresh (\u226424h) market-direct gold drivers appear (rates/USD/ETF flows/central-bank flow signals) or a clear directional acceleration emerges." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh macro or geopolitical catalyst arrives (\u22646h) that materially increases bullish/bearish pressure scores and lifts directional_score_signed beyond \u00b120." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence accumulates (2+ independent records within 2h) against the next emerging directional bias." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, 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"net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } } }