Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-11 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-24h-001 |
Copper futures are more likely than not to trade higher over the next 24h as demand-side narratives (grid modernisation/energy transition) and supply-risk narratives (mine disruptions) remain dominant. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
41 |
| copper |
B-copper-6h-001 |
Copper futures are biased to the upside over the next 6h with strengthening momentum, driven by a late-window increase in fresh supportive coverage and low measured contradiction. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
41 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-6b-copper-20260411T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures are more likely than not to trade higher over the next 24h as demand-side narratives (grid modernisation/energy transition) and supply-risk narratives (mine disruptions) remain the dominant fresh signal mass.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"mine_supply_disruption",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/trade headline risk could reduce near-term risk appetite and compress industrial metals beta without clear opposing evidence in the admitted corpus."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures are biased to the upside over the next 6h with strengthening momentum, driven by a late-window increase in fresh supportive coverage and low measured contradiction.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Short-horizon whipsaw risk from trade-policy headlines (high attention, non-linear market impact)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-24h-001",
"B-copper-6h-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 84,
"B": 10,
"C": 0,
"D": 139,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 7,
"fresh_24_72h_est": 2,
"stale_gt72h_est": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"details": "Trade-policy and cross-border industrial policy narratives are high-attention drivers that can flip intraday even without direct counter-evidence in the current admitted set."
},
{
"flag": "cross_domain_driver_overlap",
"severity": "low",
"market": "copper",
"details": "Multiple admitted trends point to similar demand-side themes (grid/energy transition). This supports directional mass but can increase narrative-crowding risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias watch while fresh supportive signal mass remains dominant AND no fresh opposing cluster appears in the last 2h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh opposing evidence appears (>=2 independent signals within 2h) OR contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Increase volatility watch during major US/China/EU trade-policy announcements or enforcement actions impacting industrial metals."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
"No explicit contradictions were provided in workflow5b_output.contradictions; reversal risk is driven by whipsaw-prone policy sensitivity rather than observed counter-evidence.",
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as new_bullish for initialization."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}