Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-11 14:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-001 | Net demand-side narrative (grid modernisation / electrification / industrial policy) is supportive of higher copper prices over the next 24h versus baseline. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 |
| copper | B-copper-002 | Supply-side disruption risk (Chile / Codelco operational disruption framing) is a supportive tailwind for copper pricing over the next 6–24h. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 46 |
| copper | B-copper-003 | Trade-policy headlines (US/China/EU) increase two-sided risk; near-term copper direction can become mixed if tariff/export-control messaging accelerates. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Net demand-side narrative (grid modernisation / electrification / industrial policy) is supportive of higher copper prices over the next 24h versus baseline.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect via LME attention)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy uncertainty can dampen near-term industrial sentiment without being direct counter-evidence in the current admitted set."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption risk (Chile / Codelco operational disruption framing) is a supportive tailwind for copper pricing over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headlines (US/China/EU) increase two-sided risk; near-term copper direction can become mixed if tariff/export-control messaging accelerates.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Current admitted corpus does not contain fresh, independent bearish copper-specific evidence; this is primarily a volatility/reversal-risk channel."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 4,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 20,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_refs_est": 10,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_refs_est": 16,
"stale_24_72h_background_refs_est": 12,
"stale_over_72h_background_refs_est": 8
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-001",
"market": "copper",
"risk_type": "trade_policy_volatility",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Trade policy is prominent in the admitted trend set; this elevates two-sided headline risk even without explicit bearish copper counter-evidence."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-002",
"market": "copper",
"risk_type": "narrative_to_price_mapping_risk",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted items are macro/industry narratives; direct price-direction mapping may be less deterministic than pure inventory/flow or explicit price-impact signals."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-003",
"market": "copper",
"risk_type": "echo_concentration_local",
"level": "low",
"details": "VIP single-source items exist but do not dominate the main copper directional thesis."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) demand-support narratives persist with low contradiction and no new opposing evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing copper-specific signals appear (e.g., demand shock / inventory surge / explicit bearish pricing drivers), treat as potential invalidation."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headline cadence accelerates within the next 6h (export controls / tariff escalation), expect wider two-sided swings even if core thesis remains bullish."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 29,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to copper; single-market constraint enforced.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; counterevidence score treated as low.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided); emitted as new_bullish for gating continuity.",
"Timeseries is conservative, recency-weighted, and derived from admitted-signal freshness proxies (published timestamps) rather than per-record physics (not provided to 6B input)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}