Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-11 14:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Net demand-side narrative (grid modernisation / electrification / industrial policy) is supportive of higher copper prices over the next 24h versus baseline. 62 up accelerating 24h false 46
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side disruption risk (Chile / Codelco operational disruption framing) is a supportive tailwind for copper pricing over the next 6–24h. 58 up stable 24h false 46
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy headlines (US/China/EU) increase two-sided risk; near-term copper direction can become mixed if tariff/export-control messaging accelerates. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Net demand-side narrative (grid modernisation / electrification / industrial policy) is supportive of higher copper prices over the next 24h versus baseline.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect via LME attention)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy uncertainty can dampen near-term industrial sentiment without being direct counter-evidence in the current admitted set."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption risk (Chile / Codelco operational disruption framing) is a supportive tailwind for copper pricing over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headlines (US/China/EU) increase two-sided risk; near-term copper direction can become mixed if tariff/export-control messaging accelerates.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Current admitted corpus does not contain fresh, independent bearish copper-specific evidence; this is primarily a volatility/reversal-risk channel."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 4,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 20,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_refs_est": 10,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_refs_est": 16,
 "stale_24_72h_background_refs_est": 12,
 "stale_over_72h_background_refs_est": 8
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "risk_type": "trade_policy_volatility",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Trade policy is prominent in the admitted trend set; this elevates two-sided headline risk even without explicit bearish copper counter-evidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "risk_type": "narrative_to_price_mapping_risk",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Several admitted items are macro/industry narratives; direct price-direction mapping may be less deterministic than pure inventory/flow or explicit price-impact signals."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "risk_type": "echo_concentration_local",
 "level": "low",
 "details": "VIP single-source items exist but do not dominate the main copper directional thesis."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) demand-support narratives persist with low contradiction and no new opposing evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing copper-specific signals appear (e.g., demand shock / inventory surge / explicit bearish pricing drivers), treat as potential invalidation."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headline cadence accelerates within the next 6h (export controls / tariff escalation), expect wider two-sided swings even if core thesis remains bullish."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 29,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 10,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to copper; single-market constraint enforced.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; counterevidence score treated as low.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided); emitted as new_bullish for gating continuity.",
 "Timeseries is conservative, recency-weighted, and derived from admitted-signal freshness proxies (published timestamps) rather than per-record physics (not provided to 6B input)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}