Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-11 13:45 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term upside pressure on coffee futures is supported by fresh weather/climate-risk and crop-risk narratives across key origins, keeping supply uncertainty elevated. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Geopolitical/logistics friction and trade-route disruption risk are adding a risk-premium to soft-commodity supply chains, biasing coffee pricing pressure upward on a 24h horizon. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Downside/capping risk: if trade infrastructure/logistics conditions improve (or disruption narratives fade), the risk-premium could compress and coffee futures could drift lower/mean-revert. |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260411T134500Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T13:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term upside pressure on coffee futures is supported by fresh weather/climate-risk and crop-risk narratives across key origins, keeping supply uncertainty elevated.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Geopolitical/logistics friction and trade-route disruption risk are adding a risk-premium to soft-commodity supply chains, biasing coffee pricing pressure upward on a 24h horizon.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"weather_disruptions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Downside/capping risk: if trade infrastructure/logistics conditions improve (or disruption narratives fade), the risk-premium could compress and coffee futures could drift lower/mean-revert.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 135,
"B": 3,
"C": 4,
"D": 277,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_updates": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_updates": 3,
"stale_over_24h_signal_updates": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Coffee directional bias is supported by macro/logistics and weather-risk narratives that can fade quickly; monitor for abrupt de-escalation signals."
},
{
"flag": "macro_geopolitical_volatility",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Trade-route / geopolitical logistics risk is an important driver in the admitted corpus; volatility risk elevated even without explicit contradiction records."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_signal_mapping_risk",
"level": "medium",
"details": "A material share of evidence is coffee-adjacent (logistics, retailers/roasters) rather than direct coffee-crop supply statistics; conviction capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while fresh (<=24h) weather/origin-risk and logistics-disruption signals remain dominant and contradiction stays low."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if additional geopolitical/logistics headlines accelerate inside the next 6h window."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if fresh evidence emerges that logistics are normalising (multiple independent records) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 88,
"fragility_score_0_100": 30,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State-change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
"No explicit contradiction records were provided; reversal risk driven by mixed driver set and narrative fragility rather than measured contradiction spikes.",
"VIP outliers were seen but not used as primary directional mass due to single-source/echo-risk characteristics."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}