Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: prior_state_unknown
  • generated_at: 2026-04-11T05:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  • completion_state: ready_for_delivery

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-chain/logistics disruption risk and weather/climate disruption narratives dominate the latest coffee-related corpus. 62 up accelerating 6h false 56
coffee B-coffee-2 Coffee futures are supported over the next 24h by demand/consumption expansion narratives (coffee shop expansion, brand/product launches) layering on top of supply-risk headlines, yielding net bullish pressure. 60 up stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260411T050000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-chain/logistics disruption risk and weather/climate disruption narratives dominate the latest coffee-related corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "weather_disruptions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures are supported over the next 24h by demand/consumption expansion narratives (coffee shop expansion, brand/product launches) layering on top of supply-risk headlines, yielding net bullish pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping_freight"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 28,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 118,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h": 16,
 "stale_24_72h": 11,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "prior_state_unknown",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "No trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior regime."
 },
 {
 "flag": "indirect_price_mapping",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Many admitted signals are narrative drivers (logistics, weather, consumption) rather than explicit coffee futures price/positioning statements; directional read is inference-based."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_geopolitical_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitics/logistics narratives can swing quickly; reversal risk elevated despite low explicit counterevidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) coffee-origin supply/weather disruption confirmations continue with low contradiction in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh records (<=2h) indicate easing logistics constraints or improved crop outlook that directly offsets supply-risk narratives."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If late-breaking geopolitical/shipping headlines cluster within a 2h window (contradiction_ratio rising) regardless of direction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market: coffee (explicit target_market_code).",
 "Admitted signals were coffee-adjacent (logistics/weather/consumption narratives) rather than direct KC price prints; conviction moderated accordingly.",
 "Contradictions array empty in input; reversal_risk set to medium due to headline-driven macro volatility rather than observed counterevidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}