Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: prior_state_unknown
- generated_at: 2026-04-11T05:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
- completion_state: ready_for_delivery
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-chain/logistics disruption risk and weather/climate disruption narratives dominate the latest coffee-related corpus. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Coffee futures are supported over the next 24h by demand/consumption expansion narratives (coffee shop expansion, brand/product launches) layering on top of supply-risk headlines, yielding net bullish pressure. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260411T050000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-chain/logistics disruption risk and weather/climate disruption narratives dominate the latest coffee-related corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"weather_disruptions"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures are supported over the next 24h by demand/consumption expansion narratives (coffee shop expansion, brand/product launches) layering on top of supply-risk headlines, yielding net bullish pressure.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 28,
"B": 2,
"C": 4,
"D": 118,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 7,
"fresh_6_24h": 16,
"stale_24_72h": 11,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "prior_state_unknown",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "No trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior regime."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_price_mapping",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Many admitted signals are narrative drivers (logistics, weather, consumption) rather than explicit coffee futures price/positioning statements; directional read is inference-based."
},
{
"flag": "macro_geopolitical_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitics/logistics narratives can swing quickly; reversal risk elevated despite low explicit counterevidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) coffee-origin supply/weather disruption confirmations continue with low contradiction in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh records (<=2h) indicate easing logistics constraints or improved crop outlook that directly offsets supply-risk narratives."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If late-breaking geopolitical/shipping headlines cluster within a 2h window (contradiction_ratio rising) regardless of direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: coffee (explicit target_market_code).",
"Admitted signals were coffee-adjacent (logistics/weather/consumption narratives) rather than direct KC price prints; conviction moderated accordingly.",
"Contradictions array empty in input; reversal_risk set to medium due to headline-driven macro volatility rather than observed counterevidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}