Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: N/A
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_premium (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-11T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Near-term Brent upside bias persists as Middle East / maritime chokepoint disruption narratives remain fresh and broadly corroborated, sustaining a risk-premium bid. 64 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-crude-002 Macro-demand tone and consumption-forecast narratives (US macro prints / demand expectations) provide real counter-pressure that can cap follow-through or trigger intraday pullbacks. 52 down stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-crude-003 Inventory-focused narratives (US DOE/EIA-related) add uncertainty: if interpreted as builds, they reinforce bearish counterevidence; if draws, they reinforce the bullish risk-premium thesis. 46 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260411T150000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term Brent upside bias persists as Middle East / maritime chokepoint disruption narratives remain fresh and broadly corroborated, sustaining a risk-premium bid.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "maritime_chokepoints", "security_incidents / escalation risk", "risk_premium_repricing" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 77, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Macro-demand tone and consumption-forecast narratives (US macro prints / demand expectations) provide real counter-pressure that can cap follow-through or trigger intraday pullbacks.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "macro_demand", "demand_forecast_revisions", "risk_off_positioning" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Inventory-focused narratives (US DOE/EIA-related) add uncertainty: if interpreted as builds, they reinforce bearish counterevidence; if draws, they reinforce the bullish risk-premium thesis.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "inventory_storage", "weekly_inventory_cycle", "headline_interpretation_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 83, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 23, "B": 2, "C": 2, "D": 24, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.62, "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.38, "older_than_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude-geo-event-driven", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "label": "event_driven_geopolitical_premium", "detail": "Directional bias is supported by fast-moving geopolitical/maritime disruption narratives; these can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines even without prior contradiction in-corpus." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude-counterpressure-macro", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "label": "macro_demand_counterpressure", "detail": "Admitted macro/demand-forecast narratives constitute actual counterevidence that can reduce follow-through and increase whipsaw risk." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude-echo-vip", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "low", "label": "single_source_outlier_noise", "detail": "Several VIP/risk items are singleton/low-diversity signals (echo-risk flagged) and were downweighted versus the multi-source trend corpus." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Fresh, multi-source continuation headlines on Hormuz/maritime security or escalatory US/Iran-linked developments inside the next 2\u20136 hours without corresponding fresh de-escalation signals." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any sudden 1\u20132 hour burst of mixed (escalation + de-escalation) reporting that raises contradiction ratio materially versus the last cycle." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, very-fresh (<=2h) de-escalation/throughput-normalisation signals that directly negate the disruption thesis and reduce net bullish pressure." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If headline flow turns sparse (fresh evidence count collapses) while macro-demand/inventory narratives dominate, pushing directional score back into neutral band." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 12, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 80, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 11, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "Direction mapping: the dominant admitted corpus is 'risk/disruption' (negative sentiment in news terms) which is treated as bullish price pressure for crude via risk premium/supply disruption channels.", "No explicit contradiction set provided; reversal risk set to medium due to admitted macro-demand/inventory counterpressure rather than contradiction spike.", "State-change set to new_bullish under unknown-prior fallback (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }