Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_counterevidence_present
- generated_at: 2026-04-11 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-geo-001 | Elevated Middle East shipping/chokepoint risk (incl. Strait of Hormuz framing) is supporting a near-term risk premium in Brent-linked crude pricing. | 66 | up | fading | 24h | false | 60 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-macro-002 | Macro/inflation and central-bank narrative is acting as counter-pressure that can cap upside (risk-off + demand sensitivity), reducing net bullish conviction for crude in the next 24h. | 57 | down | stable | 24h | false | 60 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-refining-003 | Refining constraint/outage narratives (incl. U.S. Gulf Coast refiner margin stress framing) can reduce immediate crude-throughput demand, creating mixed-to-bearish near-term pressure on crude even when product markets tighten. | 54 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 60 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260411T120000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-geo-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Elevated Middle East shipping/chokepoint risk (incl. Strait of Hormuz framing) is supporting a near-term risk premium in Brent-linked crude pricing.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "opec_supply_policy", "inventory_storage (risk-premium behaviour)", "shipping route security / maritime chokepoints" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-macro-002", "B-crude-refining-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-macro-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Macro/inflation and central-bank narrative is acting as counter-pressure that can cap upside (risk-off + demand sensitivity), reducing net bullish conviction for crude in the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "macro_demand", "inflation narrative", "policy tightening sensitivity", "USD/rates spillover (implied by macro focus signals)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-geo-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-refining-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Refining constraint/outage narratives (incl. U.S. Gulf Coast refiner margin stress framing) can reduce immediate crude-throughput demand, creating mixed-to-bearish near-term pressure on crude even when product markets tighten.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "refining_constraints", "refinery outage / margin stress narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-geo-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-geo-001", "B-crude-macro-002", "B-crude-refining-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 24, "B": 1, "C": 1, "D": 22, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signal_items": 7, "fresh_6_24h_signal_items": 6, "stale_24_72h_signal_items": 0, "stale_over_72h_signal_items": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "macro_counterevidence_present", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Macro/inflation/central-bank themed signals are present as fresh counter-pressure versus geopolitically-driven upside." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "geopolitical_premium_fragility", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Direction is materially supported by geopolitical risk-premium narratives that can mean-revert quickly on de-escalation headlines." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "momentum_fade_post_surge", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Recent evidence suggests a surge window earlier in the last 24h with modest fade thereafter (bullish still dominant but less accelerating)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) chokepoint/escalation signals appear without matching fresh macro counter-signals, maintain a watch_long_bias label." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro tightening/inflation signals accelerate while geopolitics-related signals fade (recency weight shifts to macro), shift to stay_flat label." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence (<=2h) emerges indicating de-escalation / restored shipping normalisation AND appears in 2+ independent records, elevate reversal_watch." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (more balanced bullish vs bearish pressures) across consecutive hourly buckets, elevate volatility_watch." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 25, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.", "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in input; counter-pressure was inferred from co-present macro/refining-direction signals rather than contradiction records.", "Timeseries buckets are approximated from trend-level timestamps/temporal_profile (per-record timestamps not provided to 6B in this gated payload).", "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change emitted as new_bullish for this snapshot." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }