Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-001
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Policy- and energy-security-driven nuclear buildout/support narratives remain a net positive demand signal for U3O8 over the next 24h, keeping directional bias upward. |
68 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
34 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Supply-side sensitivity (producer/regulatory/supply-chain) continues to support a tighter perceived supply outlook, reinforcing bullish pressure in the near term (6–24h). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
34 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Despite bullish bias, the signal is somewhat narrative-fragile: single-source VIP/risk-anomaly items and regulatory headline-dependence can raise short-term whipsaw risk without constituting true counter-evidence. |
57 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
34 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260410T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy- and energy-security-driven nuclear buildout/support narratives remain a net positive demand signal for U3O8 over the next 24h, keeping directional bias upward.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-side sensitivity (producer/regulatory/supply-chain) continues to support a tighter perceived supply outlook, reinforcing bullish pressure in the near term (6\u201324h).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"regulatory"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Despite bullish bias, the signal is somewhat narrative-fragile: single-source VIP/risk-anomaly items and regulatory headline-dependence can raise short-term whipsaw risk without constituting true counter-evidence.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"regulatory"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 78,
"B": 15,
"C": 20,
"D": 166,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h_estimate": 18,
"stale_gt_24h_estimate": 220,
"basis": "trend_level_timestamp_samples_and_recency_proxies"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"risk": "regulatory_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Signal drivers are policy/regulatory heavy; rapid narrative shifts can move sentiment quickly even without direct spot/term-price evidence in this feed."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"risk": "vip_single_source_echo_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "VIP lane contains multiple single-source items (echo-risk flagged) that should not be treated as mass-confirmed market direction."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"risk": "non_deduped_authority_counts",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Authority tier counts are aggregated from overlapping trend bundles without record-level deduplication; use as directional colour, not absolute totals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh policy/producer/supply headlines continue printing without credible opposing evidence in the next 6h, maintain bullish monitoring bias."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority regulatory/supply item lands abruptly (e.g., restriction, approval reversal, material production update), expect fast sentiment repricing."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate only if 2+ independent fresh opposing signals appear inside a 2h window (not just lack of confirmation)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if contradiction spikes materially and net directional score collapses toward neutral (|score| < 20) on fresh counter-evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
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},
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"velocity_score": 2,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
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{
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit counter-evidence/contradictory record sets were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk held low.",
"State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was supplied (unknown_prior fallback).",
"Source tier counts reflect summed trend bundle metadata (may include overlap across trends)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}