Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: macro_dependency
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10T16:20:34Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SIL-1 Investment-flow narrative around silver vehicles (e.g., iShares Silver Trust/SLV) is supportive in the most recent window, adding bullish bias. 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
silver B-SIL-2 Macro/real-rate expectations signals are currently interpreted as broadly supportive for precious metals sentiment, lifting silver risk appetite in the short term. 58 up stable 6h false 48
silver B-SIL-3 Industrial-demand narrative (solar/electronics framing via Silver Institute and related supply-chain signals) remains supportive as a slower-moving background tailwind. 55 up stable 24h false 48
silver B-SIL-4 Mine-supply / development headlines are present as background context and can cap upside if they intensify; current evidence is slower-burn. 46 mixed fading 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_2026-04-10T16:20:34Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T16:20:34Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Investment-flow narrative around silver vehicles (e.g., iShares Silver Trust/SLV) is supportive in the most recent window, adding bullish bias to silver futures sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-2",
 "B-SIL-4"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Macro/real-rate expectations signals are currently interpreted as broadly supportive for precious metals sentiment, which tends to lift silver risk appetite in the short term.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-4"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 82,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial-demand narrative (solar/electronics framing via Silver Institute and related supply-chain signals) remains supportive but behaves as a slower-moving background tailwind.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-4"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-4",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Mine-supply / development headlines in precious metals are present as background context and can cap upside if they intensify, but current evidence is slower-burn and not dominant in the last 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-1",
 "B-SIL-2",
 "B-SIL-3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SIL-1",
 "B-SIL-2",
 "B-SIL-3",
 "B-SIL-4"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 19,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "window_0_6h": {
 "share_0_1": 0.28
 },
 "window_6_24h": {
 "share_0_1": 0.44
 },
 "window_24_72h": {
 "share_0_1": 0.18
 },
 "window_72h_plus": {
 "share_0_1": 0.1
 }
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_dependency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "A large share of admitted evidence is macro/rates-expectations driven; these narratives can flip quickly and raise reversal risk even without explicit counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_ambiguity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several signals are supportive in tone but not explicitly directional to silver price; conviction is therefore capped despite broad evidence mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "background_supply_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Mine/development narratives exist but are slower-burn versus the last-24h flow/macro impulse."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_echo_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and should not be treated as standalone directional drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the investment-flow signal remains elevated over the next 6h and macro/rates expectations do not swing against metals, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed signals rise intra-day (e.g., USD strength narrative intensifies or rates-expectations messaging shifts), maintain reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If rapid macro headline cadence persists (central bank commentary / inflation surprises), maintain volatility_watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}