Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: macro_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T16:20:34Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SIL-1 | Investment-flow narrative around silver vehicles (e.g., iShares Silver Trust/SLV) is supportive in the most recent window, adding bullish bias. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| silver | B-SIL-2 | Macro/real-rate expectations signals are currently interpreted as broadly supportive for precious metals sentiment, lifting silver risk appetite in the short term. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
| silver | B-SIL-3 | Industrial-demand narrative (solar/electronics framing via Silver Institute and related supply-chain signals) remains supportive as a slower-moving background tailwind. | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| silver | B-SIL-4 | Mine-supply / development headlines are present as background context and can cap upside if they intensify; current evidence is slower-burn. | 46 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_2026-04-10T16:20:34Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T16:20:34Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Investment-flow narrative around silver vehicles (e.g., iShares Silver Trust/SLV) is supportive in the most recent window, adding bullish bias to silver futures sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-2",
"B-SIL-4"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Macro/real-rate expectations signals are currently interpreted as broadly supportive for precious metals sentiment, which tends to lift silver risk appetite in the short term.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-4"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 82,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial-demand narrative (solar/electronics framing via Silver Institute and related supply-chain signals) remains supportive but behaves as a slower-moving background tailwind.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-4"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-4",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Mine-supply / development headlines in precious metals are present as background context and can cap upside if they intensify, but current evidence is slower-burn and not dominant in the last 24h.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-1",
"B-SIL-2",
"B-SIL-3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SIL-1",
"B-SIL-2",
"B-SIL-3",
"B-SIL-4"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 5,
"C": 2,
"D": 19,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"window_0_6h": {
"share_0_1": 0.28
},
"window_6_24h": {
"share_0_1": 0.44
},
"window_24_72h": {
"share_0_1": 0.18
},
"window_72h_plus": {
"share_0_1": 0.1
}
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_dependency",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "A large share of admitted evidence is macro/rates-expectations driven; these narratives can flip quickly and raise reversal risk even without explicit counterevidence."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_ambiguity",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several signals are supportive in tone but not explicitly directional to silver price; conviction is therefore capped despite broad evidence mass."
},
{
"flag": "background_supply_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Mine/development narratives exist but are slower-burn versus the last-24h flow/macro impulse."
},
{
"flag": "vip_echo_risk",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and should not be treated as standalone directional drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the investment-flow signal remains elevated over the next 6h and macro/rates expectations do not swing against metals, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed signals rise intra-day (e.g., USD strength narrative intensifies or rates-expectations messaging shifts), maintain reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If rapid macro headline cadence persists (central bank commentary / inflation surprises), maintain volatility_watch."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:20:34Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:20:34Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:20:34Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:20:34Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
}
}