Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitics (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10 19:50 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term upside pressure on natural gas futures from elevated LNG supply-chain disruption risk (Middle East maritime security/Hormuz constraints and Qatar-linked LNG disruption headlines). 60 up accelerating 6h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 European storage tightness framing and broader energy-security risk narratives continue to bias natural gas pricing risk to the upside over the next day. 65 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260410T195038Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T19:50:38.609000Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term upside pressure on natural gas futures from elevated LNG supply-chain disruption risk (Middle East maritime security/Hormuz constraints and Qatar-linked LNG disruption headlines).", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "lng_export_flows", "energy_geopolitics", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "European storage tightness framing and broader energy-security risk narratives continue to bias natural gas pricing risk to the upside over the next day.", "probability_pct": 65, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "storage_levels", "lng_export_flows", "energy_geopolitics" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 7, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 3, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h_signals": 7, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 2, "stale_over_72h_signals": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "event_driven_geopolitics", "severity": "high", "active": true, "note": "Primary drivers are geopolitical/maritime-security narratives that can de-escalate quickly, increasing whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "active": true, "note": "Ceasefire/toll/shipping-access headlines are prone to rapid reversals; conviction is capped below 'high' despite strong directional mass." }, { "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation", "severity": "low", "active": false, "note": "No <=2h opposing evidence cluster detected in the admitted corpus." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_in_last_24h", "severity": "medium", "active": true, "note": "While the broader corpus is large, the last-24h bucketed feed in this payload contains only a handful of discrete fresh records; treat the intraday shape as indicative rather than exhaustive." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional same-day confirmation of LNG/cargo disruption or escalation in maritime transit constraints without offsetting de-escalation signals." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation/normalisation headlines (e.g., clear restoration of LNG operations/throughput or shipping access) appearing in multiple independent fresh records." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any new, very recent (<=2h) high-trust headline that materially changes shipping access, LNG supply availability, or storage outlook." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -2, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown prior context.", "Directional mapping interprets 'negative geopolitical / supply risk' as upward price pressure (bullish for futures) rather than 'negative' as a price direction.", "No explicit counterevidence objects present in the admitted set; reversal risk is driven by event-driven fragility rather than opposing-signal mass." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }