Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_fragility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure-security narratives are adding a risk-premium bias that tilts natural gas futures upward (via LNG/pipeline disruption risk framing). | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 63 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | LNG flow/logistics narratives (export growth, shipping, and supplier positioning) are modestly supportive for gas demand pull-through, sustaining a mild bullish bias into the next day. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Because the dominant drivers are event-risk narratives (not storage/weather fundamentals), the bullish bias is fragile and vulnerable to fast fade/mean-reversion if headlines cool. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure-security narratives are adding a risk-premium bias that tilts natural gas futures upward (via LNG/pipeline disruption risk framing).", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "pipeline_infrastructure", "lng_export_flows", "production_outages" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "LNG flow/logistics narratives (export growth, shipping, and supplier positioning) are modestly supportive for gas demand pull-through, sustaining a mild bullish bias into the next day.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lng_export_flows", "pipeline_infrastructure", "energy_geopolitics" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Because the dominant drivers are event-risk narratives (not storage/weather fundamentals), the bullish bias is fragile and vulnerable to fast fade/mean-reversion if headlines cool.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 78, "B": 9, "C": 2, "D": 112, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 16, "fresh_6_24h": 28, "fresh_24_72h": 11, "stale_gt_72h": 9 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "event_driven_fragility", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Directional bias is dominated by geopolitics / infrastructure-security narratives rather than direct storage/weather fundamentals; higher whipsaw potential." }, { "flag": "reversal_watch", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "No fresh counter-evidence detected, but headline-driven risk premia can fade quickly; monitor for de-escalation/normalisation narratives." }, { "flag": "authority_mix_skew", "severity": "low", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Authority confirmation is present but mixed across tiers; conviction is driven more by broad directional mass than uniform Tier-A confirmation." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, independent confirmations of LNG/pipeline disruption risk arrive within the next 6 hours without offsetting counter-evidence." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If rapid headline cadence persists (multiple updates within 2 hours) around maritime security / infrastructure incidents." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation or resolution headlines cluster in the most recent 2–6 hour window, reducing risk-premium narratives." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If subsequent cycle shows materially lower fresh-evidence counts (data sparsity) and conviction drops below 45." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 15, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.", "Admitted signals were constrained to LNG / gas infrastructure / gas security / geopolitics themes; non-gas-specific geopolitics was downweighted.", "No explicit opposing (bearish) evidence objects were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by event-driven fade risk rather than counterevidence." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }