Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: indirect_proxy_signal
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10 21:45 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery ecosystem activity remain broadly supportive for lithium demand expectations. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
lithium B-lithium-002 Demand-side narrative remains the dominant driver over the last 24h, with multiple independent sources reinforcing EV/battery growth expectations (proxy-positive for lithium). 60 up stable 24h false 58
lithium B-lithium-003 Supply-side expansion narratives (projects/extraction/refining capacity) are a meaningful cap on upside; market risks shifting to rangebound if supply confirmation accelerates. 56 mixed stable 24h false 58
lithium B-lithium-004 Chemistry-mix narratives (e.g., increased attention to alternative chemistries) create a non-trivial reversal risk if they become the dominant headline driver. 38 down fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_2026-04-10T21:45:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T21:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery ecosystem activity remain broadly supportive for lithium demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "ev_policy_subsidies",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "battery_chemistry_substitution_risk",
 "supply_expansion_overhang"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Demand-side narrative remains the dominant driver over the last 24h, with multiple independent sources reinforcing EV/battery growth expectations (proxy-positive for lithium).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "indirectness_of_price_link"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side expansion narratives (projects/extraction/refining capacity) are a meaningful cap on upside; market risks shifting to rangebound if supply confirmation accelerates.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lithium_mining_supply",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "demand_acceleration_proxy"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-004",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Chemistry-mix narratives (e.g., increased attention to alternative chemistries) create a non-trivial reversal risk if they become the dominant headline driver.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "current_ev_adoption_breadth"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002",
 "B-lithium-003",
 "B-lithium-004"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 45,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 130,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 18,
 "fresh_6_24h": 60,
 "mid_24_72h": 40,
 "stale_gt_72h": 70
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "indirect_proxy_signal",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Most admitted evidence is EV/battery ecosystem sentiment; direct lithium price/physical-market prints are sparse in the provided corpus."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "supply_expansion_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Mining/extraction/refining capacity narratives can cap upside and raise reversal/rangebound risk if they accelerate with fresh confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "chemistry_substitution_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Battery chemistry evolution narratives can become counter-evidence for lithium demand growth if framed as substitution rather than expansion."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (0\u20136h) confirmation that EV demand/battery buildout headlines remain dominant AND no corresponding surge in supply-expansion headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=24h) signals shift dominance toward supply expansion, demand slowdown, or substitution narratives."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.45 with simultaneous increases in both bullish and bearish pressure in the same 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses back into [-10,+10] for >=6 consecutive buckets with declining fresh evidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
 "Directional inference relies heavily on EV/battery ecosystem sentiment proxies; direct lithium pricing/spot-tightness evidence not present in this baton.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to plausible supply-expansion and chemistry-mix counter-drivers."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}