Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: driver_sign_ambiguity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium lithium_belief_1 Demand-side narrative remains supportive (EV adoption + pro-EV policy + battery buildout), biasing lithium futures modestly upwar… 56 up stable 24h false 62
lithium lithium_belief_2 Supply-side expansion / extraction momentum is a near-term cap on price upside; if additional mine/refining capacity narratives accelera… 49 down fading 24h false 62
lithium lithium_belief_3 Near-term (6h) lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound because the corpus is directionally positive in sentiment but am… 60 mixed accelerating 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260410T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "lithium_belief_1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Demand-side narrative remains supportive (EV adoption + pro-EV policy + battery buildout), biasing lithium futures modestly upward over the next 24h if no negative supply shock headlines dominate.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "ev_policy_subsidies",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lithium_belief_2",
 "lithium_belief_3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "lithium_belief_2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side expansion / extraction momentum is a near-term cap on price upside; if additional mine/refining capacity narratives accelerate, lithium futures may drift lower or fail to follow broader EV-positive sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 49,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lithium_mining_supply",
 "refining_capacity",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lithium_belief_1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "lithium_belief_3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound because the corpus is directionally positive in sentiment but ambiguous in direct price implication (demand-support vs supply-expansion).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "market_perception",
 "ev_demand",
 "lithium_mining_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "lithium_belief_1",
 "lithium_belief_2",
 "lithium_belief_3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 121,
 "B": 18,
 "C": 19,
 "D": 232,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 6,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "driver_sign_ambiguity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Most admitted signals are positive on EV/battery themes, but some are consistent with supply expansion that can be bearish for lithium price; net directional score remains below bullish threshold."
 },
 {
 "flag": "rangebound_regime_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "High narrative heat with mixed direct price implication can produce whipsaw (headline-driven) without persistent follow-through."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_timeseries_distribution",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Hourly timeseries uses trend-level peak timestamps/heat; full per-record timestamp distribution was not available in this payload."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional state remains neutral_mixed AND conviction_score_0_100 < 60."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster (>=2 independent signals within 2h) emerges that flips the net directional_score_signed beyond ±20."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If supply-expansion/extraction narratives accelerate while EV-demand/policy narratives decelerate in the last 6h window (contradiction_ratio rises materially)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 76,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 13,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope locked to target_market_code=lithium (explicit).",
 "Admitted signals were largely positive-sentiment EV/battery/policy narratives; direct lithium price sign is mixed due to simultaneous supply-expansion/extraction themes (treated as counter-pressure).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were present in input; reversal_risk set to medium primarily from driver offset (demand-support vs supply-cap) rather than fresh opposing headline clusters.",
 "Signal timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level peak timestamps/heat plus selected newest timestamps; full per-record time distribution was not provided in this gated payload."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}