Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: driver_sign_ambiguity
- generated_at: 2026-04-10 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
lithium_belief_1 |
Demand-side narrative remains supportive (EV adoption + pro-EV policy + battery buildout), biasing lithium futures modestly upwar… |
56 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| lithium |
lithium_belief_2 |
Supply-side expansion / extraction momentum is a near-term cap on price upside; if additional mine/refining capacity narratives accelera… |
49 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
| lithium |
lithium_belief_3 |
Near-term (6h) lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound because the corpus is directionally positive in sentiment but am… |
60 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260410T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "lithium_belief_1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Demand-side narrative remains supportive (EV adoption + pro-EV policy + battery buildout), biasing lithium futures modestly upward over the next 24h if no negative supply shock headlines dominate.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"ev_policy_subsidies",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lithium_belief_2",
"lithium_belief_3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "lithium_belief_2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion / extraction momentum is a near-term cap on price upside; if additional mine/refining capacity narratives accelerate, lithium futures may drift lower or fail to follow broader EV-positive sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 49,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lithium_mining_supply",
"refining_capacity",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lithium_belief_1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "lithium_belief_3",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound because the corpus is directionally positive in sentiment but ambiguous in direct price implication (demand-support vs supply-expansion).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"market_perception",
"ev_demand",
"lithium_mining_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"lithium_belief_1",
"lithium_belief_2",
"lithium_belief_3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 121,
"B": 18,
"C": 19,
"D": 232,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 6,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "driver_sign_ambiguity",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Most admitted signals are positive on EV/battery themes, but some are consistent with supply expansion that can be bearish for lithium price; net directional score remains below bullish threshold."
},
{
"flag": "rangebound_regime_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "High narrative heat with mixed direct price implication can produce whipsaw (headline-driven) without persistent follow-through."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_timeseries_distribution",
"severity": "low",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Hourly timeseries uses trend-level peak timestamps/heat; full per-record timestamp distribution was not available in this payload."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional state remains neutral_mixed AND conviction_score_0_100 < 60."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster (>=2 independent signals within 2h) emerges that flips the net directional_score_signed beyond ±20."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If supply-expansion/extraction narratives accelerate while EV-demand/policy narratives decelerate in the last 6h window (contradiction_ratio rises materially)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 100,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 76,
"acceleration_score": 76,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 35,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -76,
"acceleration_score": -152,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 76,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 76,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 13,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope locked to target_market_code=lithium (explicit).",
"Admitted signals were largely positive-sentiment EV/battery/policy narratives; direct lithium price sign is mixed due to simultaneous supply-expansion/extraction themes (treated as counter-pressure).",
"No explicit contradiction objects were present in input; reversal_risk set to medium primarily from driver offset (demand-support vs supply-cap) rather than fresh opposing headline clusters.",
"Signal timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level peak timestamps/heat plus selected newest timestamps; full per-record time distribution was not provided in this gated payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}