Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 1
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10T07:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound over the next 6h–24h because there is insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus; the available gold/GLD/trade-disruption signals are stale relative to the 30d window. 60 mixed fading 24h false 85

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260410T071000Z-gold",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T07:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound over the next 6h\u201324h because there is insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus; the available gold/GLD/trade-disruption signals are stale relative to the 30d window.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_window",
 "stale_gold_trade_disruption_chatter",
 "stale_etf_positioning_singletons"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 0,
 "recent_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "No mapped gold-specific evidence within the most recent 24h; mapped signals are older than the configured 30d window and were heavily downweighted."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Gold-relevant items (gold trade disruption / GLD dynamics) are stale and cannot sustain directional conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "If fresh macro/real-rate or geopolitics headlines arrive, direction could shift quickly from a low-information baseline."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Until at least 3 independent, gold-specific records land inside the current 30d window with consistent directionality."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If any fresh (<=6h) high-authority macro/real-rate or gold-flow catalyst appears (e.g., clear USD/real-rate shock or confirmed bullion/ETF flow headline)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, opposing gold-specific catalyst emerges after a period of renewed one-way evidence accumulation (not present in this snapshot)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold' (single-market scope enforced).",
 "Gold-mappable signals present (e.g., gold trade disruption / GLD / gold market logistics) are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is outside the configured 30d window ending 2026-04-10; applied strong stale downweighting.",
 "Geopolitical conflict cluster is large but was not force-mapped to gold because it lacks explicit gold/XAU/bullion linkage per mapping rules; treated as unmapped background.",
 "No late-breaking (<=2h) opposing gold-specific invalidation signals detected in the admitted, mapped set."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}