Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 1
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T07:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-001 | Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound over the next 6h–24h because there is insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus; the available gold/GLD/trade-disruption signals are stale relative to the 30d window. | 60 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 85 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260410T071000Z-gold",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T07:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound over the next 6h\u201324h because there is insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus; the available gold/GLD/trade-disruption signals are stale relative to the 30d window.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_window",
"stale_gold_trade_disruption_chatter",
"stale_etf_positioning_singletons"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h": 0,
"recent_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "No mapped gold-specific evidence within the most recent 24h; mapped signals are older than the configured 30d window and were heavily downweighted."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Gold-relevant items (gold trade disruption / GLD dynamics) are stale and cannot sustain directional conviction."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "If fresh macro/real-rate or geopolitics headlines arrive, direction could shift quickly from a low-information baseline."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Until at least 3 independent, gold-specific records land inside the current 30d window with consistent directionality."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If any fresh (<=6h) high-authority macro/real-rate or gold-flow catalyst appears (e.g., clear USD/real-rate shock or confirmed bullion/ETF flow headline)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, opposing gold-specific catalyst emerges after a period of renewed one-way evidence accumulation (not present in this snapshot)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold' (single-market scope enforced).",
"Gold-mappable signals present (e.g., gold trade disruption / GLD / gold market logistics) are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is outside the configured 30d window ending 2026-04-10; applied strong stale downweighting.",
"Geopolitical conflict cluster is large but was not force-mapped to gold because it lacks explicit gold/XAU/bullion linkage per mapping rules; treated as unmapped background.",
"No late-breaking (<=2h) opposing gold-specific invalidation signals detected in the admitted, mapped set."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}