Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-GOLD-01 | Near-term gold futures direction is mixed/flat due to lack of fresh, corroborated gold-specific catalysts in the admitted corpus; existing gold-linked items are stale and thin. | 62 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 72 |
| gold | B-GOLD-02 | Gold may experience episodic volatility (two-sided) if trade/logistics/traceability headlines re-appear with corroboration, but current evidence is uncorroborated and stale. | 41 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-01",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Near-term gold futures direction is mixed/flat due to lack of fresh, corroborated gold-specific catalysts in the admitted corpus; existing gold-linked items are stale and thin.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sparse gold-specific evidence in the most recent windows",
"Stale, single-source gold trade/logistics mentions"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-02",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold may experience episodic volatility (two-sided) if trade/logistics/traceability headlines re-appear with corroboration, but current evidence is uncorroborated and stale.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Trade disruption / traceability theme appears only as singletons",
"Echo-concentration risk (low domain diversity per item)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-01",
"B-GOLD-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Admitted gold-linked signals are dominated by singletons and are not fresh (no meaningful 0-72h evidence)."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most available gold-linked items are >72h old relative to snapshot; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "echo_concentration",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Gold-specific items show low source diversity (singleton domains / unknown source fields)."
},
{
"flag": "unmapped_signal_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Large geopolitical/macro trend mass exists in the broader corpus but cannot be confidently alias-mapped to gold under the workflow\u2019s mapping rules; excluded from directional mass."
},
{
"flag": "timestamp_anomaly_present",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "low",
"details": "A risk anomaly seed appears future-dated within the same calendar day; ignored for gold mapping and for recency logic."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain until fresh (<=24h), multi-source gold-specific evidence lifts conviction above ~45 with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate if 2+ independent gold-linked logistics/ETF-flow/macro drivers appear inside 6h (freshness dominance) or if contradiction rises materially."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate if a fresh (<=2h) opposing gold-specific signal appears from 2+ independent sources or one structural hard invalidator."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Gold market scope is explicit (target_market_code=gold).",
"Most corpus trends are geopolitical/macro but cannot be alias-mapped to gold under strict mapping rules; excluded from gold directional mass.",
"Gold-linked VIP items are singletons and stale (primarily dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09); recency weighting suppresses direction and weakens momentum.",
"No credible late-breaking (<=2h) opposing/confirming gold-specific signal detected in admitted set; kill-switch not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}