Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-10 22:11 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B1 |
Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as fresh, broad coverage links grid buildout/electrification and energy-transition capex to stronger copper demand expectations. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B2 |
Policy/trade-policy headline flow is likely to keep copper choppy in the next session even if the dominant demand narrative remains constructive. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B3 |
Supply-side disruption narratives (e.g., large-producer operational disruption themes) remain a secondary bullish tailwind but are less fresh and contribute mostly as background support. |
54 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_6B_copper_2026-04-10T22:11:08Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T22:11:08Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as fresh, broad coverage links grid buildout/electrification and energy-transition capex to stronger copper demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Policy/trade-policy headline flow is likely to keep copper choppy in the next session even if the dominant demand narrative remains constructive.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption narratives (e.g., large-producer operational disruption themes) remain a secondary bullish tailwind but are less fresh and contribute mostly as background support.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 3,
"C": 1,
"D": 28,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h_proxy": 10,
"mid_24_72h_proxy": 3,
"stale_gt_72h_proxy": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "trade_policy_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Trade-policy related themes are prominent; treated as volatility/range risk rather than confirmed counter-directional evidence."
},
{
"flag": "slow_burn_narrative_overlap",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Several supportive themes span >7 days; thesis remains valid due to fresh confirmations but some drivers are persistent rather than new."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"note": "A meaningful share of supporting items are lower-tier or single-source; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (0\u20136h) evidence continues to cluster around demand expansion themes with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate or broaden across independent sources within the next 6\u201324h window."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If genuine, fresh opposing evidence appears (e.g., clear demand shock or risk-off macro impulse) across 2+ independent records inside 2h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictory evidence objects were supplied in the admitted set; trade-policy items were treated as volatility risk unless they contained clear opposing market claims.",
"Per-trend evidence bundles overlap; tier counts and freshness mix are treated as conservative proxies, not deduplicated totals."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}