Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10 22:11 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as fresh, broad coverage links grid buildout/electrification and energy-transition capex to stronger copper demand expectations. 63 up accelerating 24h false 44
copper B2 Policy/trade-policy headline flow is likely to keep copper choppy in the next session even if the dominant demand narrative remains constructive. 56 mixed stable 6h false 44
copper B3 Supply-side disruption narratives (e.g., large-producer operational disruption themes) remain a secondary bullish tailwind but are less fresh and contribute mostly as background support. 54 up fading 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_copper_2026-04-10T22:11:08Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T22:11:08Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as fresh, broad coverage links grid buildout/electrification and energy-transition capex to stronger copper demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Policy/trade-policy headline flow is likely to keep copper choppy in the next session even if the dominant demand narrative remains constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption narratives (e.g., large-producer operational disruption themes) remain a secondary bullish tailwind but are less fresh and contribute mostly as background support.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 28,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h_proxy": 10,
 "mid_24_72h_proxy": 3,
 "stale_gt_72h_proxy": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Trade-policy related themes are prominent; treated as volatility/range risk rather than confirmed counter-directional evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "slow_burn_narrative_overlap",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Several supportive themes span >7 days; thesis remains valid due to fresh confirmations but some drivers are persistent rather than new."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "A meaningful share of supporting items are lower-tier or single-source; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (0\u20136h) evidence continues to cluster around demand expansion themes with low contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate or broaden across independent sources within the next 6\u201324h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If genuine, fresh opposing evidence appears (e.g., clear demand shock or risk-off macro impulse) across 2+ independent records inside 2h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictory evidence objects were supplied in the admitted set; trade-policy items were treated as volatility risk unless they contained clear opposing market claims.",
 "Per-trend evidence bundles overlap; tier counts and freshness mix are treated as conservative proxies, not deduplicated totals."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}