Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-copper-001
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-001 | Near-term demand-side narratives (grid modernisation/electrification/energy transition build-out) are exerting net upward pressure on copper sentiment. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| copper | B-copper-002 | Supply-side constraint/disruption framing (large-producer operational disruption risk) adds incremental upside skew to copper sentiment over the next 24h. | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| copper | B-copper-003 | Trade-policy headline flow is a volatility amplifier for copper sentiment (risk of whipsaw without clear opposing evidence in-corpus). | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-2026-04-10T070000Z-copper", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term demand-side narratives (grid modernisation/electrification/energy transition build-out) are exerting net upward pressure on copper sentiment.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_transition_demand", "industrial_demand", "inventory_exchange_stocks" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Supply-side constraint/disruption framing (large-producer operational disruption risk) adds incremental upside skew to copper sentiment over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply_disruption", "inventory_exchange_stocks" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-003", "market": "copper", "claim": "Trade-policy headline flow is a volatility amplifier for copper sentiment (risk of whipsaw without clear opposing evidence in-corpus).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-001", "B-copper-002", "B-copper-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 18, "B": 2, "C": 1, "D": 29, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 2, "fresh_6_24h": 10, "fresh_24_72h": 6, "stale_gt_72h": 20 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-001", "market": "copper", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Trade-policy coverage is present and fast-moving; corpus does not show strong opposing directional evidence but can still induce short-horizon volatility." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-002", "market": "copper", "type": "echo_concentration_low_authority_mix", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Direction is supported by broad coverage, but a meaningful share is lower-tier/operational sources; maintain elevated fragility despite strong mass." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-003", "market": "copper", "type": "timeseries_sparsity", "severity": "low", "detail": "Hourly timeseries buckets are conservative proxies built from limited timestamp samples rather than full per-record time allocation." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly directional score remains >= +20 and no fresh (<=2h) opposing cluster emerges." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if trade-policy headlines spike and contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.25 in the newest buckets." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch only if 2+ independent opposing signals appear within 2h or a hard invalidator emerges." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 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"fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } } }