Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: cross_domain_indirection (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10T22:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Coffee futures (KC) face net upward price pressure over the next 24h, primarily from logistics/geopolitical trade-friction narratives tightening effective supply and raising delivery risk premia. 60 up stable 24h false 55
coffee B-coffee-002 Near-term supply-risk framing (weather/climate anomaly coverage) sustains a positive risk premium for coffee futures into the next 6–24h window. 58 up stable 6h false 55
coffee B-coffee-003 Consumption-side narratives (brand product innovation + coffee shop expansion) modestly reinforce bullish bias for coffee futures over 24h, but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers. 54 up fading 24h false 55
coffee B-coffee-004 Production/input cost narratives are interpreted as inflationary for coffee supply chains, supporting higher forward pricing bias over the next 24h. 57 up stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260410T223000Z-coffee", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T22:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures (KC) face net upward price pressure over the next 24h, primarily from logistics/geopolitical trade-friction narratives tightening effective supply and raising delivery risk premia.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Global commodity trade/logistics disruption narrative (Iran / trade routes / shipping friction)", "Trade disruption / policy risk narrative (U.S. trade disruption theme)", "Secondary shipping flow disruption themes" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term supply-risk framing (weather/climate anomaly coverage) sustains a positive risk premium for coffee futures into the next 6\u201324h window.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Weather disruptions / climate anomalies affecting agriculture and supply chains", "Climate anomaly + energy price context bleeding into ag complex risk pricing" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Consumption-side narratives (brand product innovation + coffee shop expansion) modestly reinforce bullish bias for coffee futures over 24h, but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Coffee retail/brand product innovation cycle signals (Starbucks theme)", "Coffee shop expansion / category growth framing" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-004", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Production/input cost narratives are interpreted as inflationary for coffee supply chains, supporting higher forward pricing bias over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Agricultural input cost pressures", "Production cost factor coverage (bank/market commentary theme)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002", "B-coffee-003", "B-coffee-004" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 127, "B": 3, "C": 3, "D": 236, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_signals_0_6h": 9, "fresh_signals_6_24h": 0, "fresh_signals_24_72h": 0, "stale_context_over_72h_present": true }, "regime_state": "loosening", "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 30, "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 25, "reversal_triggered": false, "reversal_evidence_summary": [ "No explicit fresh opposing coffee-price thesis detected inside admitted corpus; reversal risk driven by thematic cross-domain ambiguity (macro/logistics narratives can flip quickly)." ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "cross_domain_indirection", "severity": "medium", "details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/logistics or consumer-brand narrative rather than direct coffee supply/price prints; conviction capped accordingly." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Geopolitical/logistics narratives can reverse quickly; monitor for sudden de-escalation signals that compress risk premium." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "details": "Some themes originated >72h ago but remain supported by fresh updates; no stale suppression applied." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if fresh logistics/weather risk headlines continue to cluster without credible de-escalation signals." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh items (<=2h) indicate easing shipping constraints, improved crop outlook, or material demand softness." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Expect higher variance if geopolitical/shipping narratives accelerate (headline density spike) while consumer-demand signals remain mixed." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Prefer neutral posture if the next cycle shows sharply rising contradiction ratio with no net directional mass." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, 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"bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 56.5, "bearish_pressure_score": 43.5, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65.5, "bearish_pressure_score": 34.5, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65.5, "bearish_pressure_score": 34.5, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65.5, "bearish_pressure_score": 34.5, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65.5, "bearish_pressure_score": 34.5, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state not provided; state_change computed using default prior=neutral_mixed assumption.", "Bullish call is a sentiment/pressure synthesis (supply-risk + logistics + cost) rather than a direct price-confirmed signal; conviction capped and reversal risk set to medium." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }