Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: cross_domain_noise_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated logistics/shipping disruption risk and broader trade-flow frictions affecting soft-commodity supply chains. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Demand-side tone remains supportive (specialty/consumer trend and branded-channel activity), contributing to a bid bias in coffee-linked narratives. |
56 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-3 |
Trade/export expansion and sector development narratives may partially offset upside by improving market access and incremental availability over the next 24h window. |
41 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-10T12:00:00Z-coffee-KC",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated logistics/shipping disruption risk and broader trade-flow frictions affecting soft-commodity supply chains.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side tone remains supportive (specialty/consumer trend and branded-channel activity), contributing to a bid bias in coffee-linked narratives.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Trade/export expansion and sector development narratives may partially offset upside by improving market access and incremental availability over the next 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 116,
"B": 3,
"C": 8,
"D": 220,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.32,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.44,
"stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.16,
"stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.08
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "cross_domain_noise_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/logistics/input-cost themed and not uniquely coffee-specific; mapping-to-price direction is therefore moderately fragile."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch_mixed_offsets",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supply-expansion/trade-development narratives exist alongside disruption/cost narratives; reversal risk increases if fresh supply-easing confirmations cluster."
},
{
"flag": "freshness_gap_last_2h",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No late-breaking (<=2h) hard invalidators detected in the admitted set; however, monitoring remains warranted due to geopolitics/logistics sensitivity."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.20."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if logistics/shipping disruption coverage surges again (bucket directional score jump >= +10 within 2 hours) or if source diversity drops materially."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if two or more independent fresh signals (<=6h) support supply-easing/availability improvements and directional score falls below +20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Directional interpretation relies on mapping logistics disruption + input cost pressure + demand tone to price-up bias; direct coffee crop-condition/harvest-specific signals are comparatively underrepresented in the admitted trend set.",
"Aggregated source_tier_counts are approximate rollups across admitted trends and may double-count overlapping evidence records."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}