Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: cross_domain_noise_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated logistics/shipping disruption risk and broader trade-flow frictions affecting soft-commodity supply chains. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
coffee B-coffee-2 Demand-side tone remains supportive (specialty/consumer trend and branded-channel activity), contributing to a bid bias in coffee-linked narratives. 56 up stable 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-3 Trade/export expansion and sector development narratives may partially offset upside by improving market access and incremental availability over the next 24h window. 41 down fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-10T12:00:00Z-coffee-KC",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated logistics/shipping disruption risk and broader trade-flow frictions affecting soft-commodity supply chains.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side tone remains supportive (specialty/consumer trend and branded-channel activity), contributing to a bid bias in coffee-linked narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Trade/export expansion and sector development narratives may partially offset upside by improving market access and incremental availability over the next 24h window.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping_freight"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 116,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 220,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.32,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.44,
 "stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.16,
 "stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.08
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "cross_domain_noise_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/logistics/input-cost themed and not uniquely coffee-specific; mapping-to-price direction is therefore moderately fragile."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_watch_mixed_offsets",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply-expansion/trade-development narratives exist alongside disruption/cost narratives; reversal risk increases if fresh supply-easing confirmations cluster."
 },
 {
 "flag": "freshness_gap_last_2h",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No late-breaking (<=2h) hard invalidators detected in the admitted set; however, monitoring remains warranted due to geopolitics/logistics sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.20."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if logistics/shipping disruption coverage surges again (bucket directional score jump >= +10 within 2 hours) or if source diversity drops materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if two or more independent fresh signals (<=6h) support supply-easing/availability improvements and directional score falls below +20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Directional interpretation relies on mapping logistics disruption + input cost pressure + demand tone to price-up bias; direct coffee crop-condition/harvest-specific signals are comparatively underrepresented in the admitted trend set.",
 "Aggregated source_tier_counts are approximate rollups across admitted trends and may double-count overlapping evidence records."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}