Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10T23:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CRUDE-001 Geopolitical escalation / maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz + wider Middle East shipping/security) is sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent. 64 up fading 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CRUDE-002 Macro headwinds (inflation/rates expectations + USD strength) are acting as counter-pressure, increasing the odds that any upside impulse in Brent mean-reverts rather than trends. 52 mixed stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CRUDE-003 Refining/outage and downstream constraints headlines (Saudi/US/Pemex-related outage chatter) modestly bias physical tightness expectations upward, supporting Brent on dips. 55 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260410-2310Z-BRN-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T23:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation / maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz + wider Middle East shipping/security) is sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "inventory_storage (risk-premium mechanism)",
 "national_oil_companies (supply/security sensitivity)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro tightening / strong USD narrative reducing risk-on commodity bid (partial cap, not a full negation)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro headwinds (inflation/rates expectations + USD strength) are acting as counter-pressure, increasing the odds that any upside impulse in Brent mean-reverts rather than trends.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "pricing (USD channel)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, repeated conflict/shipping-risk headlines (risk premium can dominate macro in short windows)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refining/outage and downstream constraints headlines (Saudi/US/Pemex-related outage chatter) modestly bias physical tightness expectations upward, supporting Brent on dips.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "refining_constraints",
 "inventory_storage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If outages remain single-source / uncorroborated, support degrades quickly"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CRUDE-001",
 "B-CRUDE-002",
 "B-CRUDE-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 246,
 "B": 20,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 258,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 8,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical and headline-sensitive; momentum has faded after an earlier spike."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_counterpressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "USD/rates/inflation narratives provide meaningful counter-force that can cap upside or trigger pullbacks."
 },
 {
 "flag": "evidence_overlap_double_counting_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Many trends share overlapping record pools; directional mass is broad, but unique evidence may be less than raw counts imply."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (0\u20136h) independent escalation/chokepoint disruption reports accelerate and contradiction stays low, maintain a long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (shipping/security/outage cluster), treat as volatility-watch regardless of direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro-driven counterpressure (USD/rates) strengthens while conflict headlines fade, treat as reversal-watch (bullish-to-neutral risk)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradictory evidence objects were provided; reversal risk is driven by event-driven fade/whipsaw dynamics rather than detected counter-evidence.",
 "source_tier_counts are summed across admitted trend evidence bundles; overlap across trends is expected."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}