Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T23:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-001 |
Geopolitical escalation / maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz + wider Middle East shipping/security) is sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent. |
64 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-002 |
Macro headwinds (inflation/rates expectations + USD strength) are acting as counter-pressure, increasing the odds that any upside impulse in Brent mean-reverts rather than trends. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-003 |
Refining/outage and downstream constraints headlines (Saudi/US/Pemex-related outage chatter) modestly bias physical tightness expectations upward, supporting Brent on dips. |
55 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260410-2310Z-BRN-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T23:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation / maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz + wider Middle East shipping/security) is sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"inventory_storage (risk-premium mechanism)",
"national_oil_companies (supply/security sensitivity)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro tightening / strong USD narrative reducing risk-on commodity bid (partial cap, not a full negation)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro headwinds (inflation/rates expectations + USD strength) are acting as counter-pressure, increasing the odds that any upside impulse in Brent mean-reverts rather than trends.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"pricing (USD channel)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, repeated conflict/shipping-risk headlines (risk premium can dominate macro in short windows)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refining/outage and downstream constraints headlines (Saudi/US/Pemex-related outage chatter) modestly bias physical tightness expectations upward, supporting Brent on dips.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"refining_constraints",
"inventory_storage"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If outages remain single-source / uncorroborated, support degrades quickly"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 246,
"B": 20,
"C": 0,
"D": 258,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 8,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical and headline-sensitive; momentum has faded after an earlier spike."
},
{
"flag": "macro_counterpressure",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "USD/rates/inflation narratives provide meaningful counter-force that can cap upside or trigger pullbacks."
},
{
"flag": "evidence_overlap_double_counting_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Many trends share overlapping record pools; directional mass is broad, but unique evidence may be less than raw counts imply."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (0\u20136h) independent escalation/chokepoint disruption reports accelerate and contradiction stays low, maintain a long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (shipping/security/outage cluster), treat as volatility-watch regardless of direction."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If macro-driven counterpressure (USD/rates) strengthens while conflict headlines fade, treat as reversal-watch (bullish-to-neutral risk)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradictory evidence objects were provided; reversal risk is driven by event-driven fade/whipsaw dynamics rather than detected counter-evidence.",
"source_tier_counts are summed across admitted trend evidence bundles; overlap across trends is expected."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}