Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-GEO-CLUSTER (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-10T07:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Near-term Brent pricing skew is upward due to elevated Middle East escalation / maritime-chokepoint risk (Hormuz-adjacent) raising perceived supply-disruption probability. 66 up accelerating 24h false 63
crude_oil B2 Refinery-outage and operational-constraint narratives increase product tightness risk and can pull crude benchmarks higher (or sustain strength) if outages are disruption-driven rather than demand-driven. 57 up stable 24h false 63
crude_oil B3 Macro-growth and recession-risk framing is a meaningful cap on upside (demand headwind), increasing the odds of pullbacks if geopolitical risk fails to escalate further. 44 down stable 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260410T070500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T07:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term Brent pricing skew is upward due to elevated Middle East escalation / maritime-chokepoint risk (Hormuz-adjacent) raising perceived supply-disruption probability.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran conflict escalation narrative",
 "Saudi/Kuwait/UAE security-incident clustering",
 "Maritime chokepoint monitoring signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro-growth / demand-risk narrative (B3)",
 "Official/structural supply-response messaging (single-source)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refinery-outage and operational-constraint narratives increase product tightness risk and can pull crude benchmarks higher (or sustain strength) if outages are disruption-driven rather than demand-driven.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Refinery outages / operational disruption mentions",
 "Inventory / physical crude & product inventory chatter",
 "Risk anomaly cluster around refinery/outage themes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Demand-destruction / growth-slowdown narrative (B3)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro-growth and recession-risk framing is a meaningful cap on upside (demand headwind), increasing the odds of pullbacks if geopolitical risk fails to escalate further.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "IMF / global growth risk narrative",
 "Policy/macro uncertainty spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Geopolitical supply-risk cluster (B1)",
 "Operational disruption / refinery-risk cluster (B2)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 252,
 "B": 18,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 249,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 6,
 "stale_gt24h_signals": 0,
 "notes": "Freshness mix estimated from trend evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps and VIP/risk anomaly publish times within the last 24h window."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-GEO-CLUSTER",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Geopolitical and security-incident clustering is the dominant driver; price response is event-path dependent (headline risk).",
 "evidence_refs": [
 "T-001",
 "T-002",
 "T-050",
 "T-003",
 "T-005",
 "T-051",
 "T-025",
 "T-010"
 ]
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-MACRO-HEADWIND",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Macro growth / recession-risk narrative provides real counterpressure (demand cap), increasing whipsaw probability if geopolitics cools.",
 "evidence_refs": [
 "T-049"
 ]
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SINGLE-SOURCE-OFFICIAL",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Single-source official supply-policy/supply-operations messaging exists; not enough alone to flip direction but can amplify reversal risk if corroborated.",
 "evidence_refs": [
 "VIP-008",
 "RA-003",
 "RA-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SPARSE-SEED-RISK",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "At least one high-impact operational risk item appears as seed-level / not materialised evidence (treat as fragile until corroborated).",
 "evidence_refs": [
 "RA-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical escalation confirmations persist (0\u20136h window) without matching fresh de-escalation / demand-shock counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "While chokepoint / security-incident narratives remain in late-surge mode and news velocity is rapid."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a clear de-escalation signal (2+ independent sources within 2h) arrives or macro-demand shock evidence accelerates."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory evidence mass rises materially (contradiction ratio spikes) and conviction falls below 45."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 74,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Directional mass is driven by a broad, fresh, multi-source geopolitical/supply-risk cluster; authority confirmation is high but not required to sustain the bullish call.",
 "Actual counterevidence present (macro/demand headwind + potential supply-response messaging), but not yet sufficient to neutralise the dominant supply-risk impulse.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h, multi-source, opposing hard invalidator observed in admitted corpus).",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative, evidence-assignment approximations based on trend publish/newest timestamps rather than full per-record tick data."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}