Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-GEO-CLUSTER (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-10T07:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Near-term Brent pricing skew is upward due to elevated Middle East escalation / maritime-chokepoint risk (Hormuz-adjacent) raising perceived supply-disruption probability. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
63 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Refinery-outage and operational-constraint narratives increase product tightness risk and can pull crude benchmarks higher (or sustain strength) if outages are disruption-driven rather than demand-driven. |
57 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
63 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
Macro-growth and recession-risk framing is a meaningful cap on upside (demand headwind), increasing the odds of pullbacks if geopolitical risk fails to escalate further. |
44 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260410T070500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T07:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term Brent pricing skew is upward due to elevated Middle East escalation / maritime-chokepoint risk (Hormuz-adjacent) raising perceived supply-disruption probability.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Iran conflict escalation narrative",
"Saudi/Kuwait/UAE security-incident clustering",
"Maritime chokepoint monitoring signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro-growth / demand-risk narrative (B3)",
"Official/structural supply-response messaging (single-source)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refinery-outage and operational-constraint narratives increase product tightness risk and can pull crude benchmarks higher (or sustain strength) if outages are disruption-driven rather than demand-driven.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Refinery outages / operational disruption mentions",
"Inventory / physical crude & product inventory chatter",
"Risk anomaly cluster around refinery/outage themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Demand-destruction / growth-slowdown narrative (B3)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-growth and recession-risk framing is a meaningful cap on upside (demand headwind), increasing the odds of pullbacks if geopolitical risk fails to escalate further.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"IMF / global growth risk narrative",
"Policy/macro uncertainty spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Geopolitical supply-risk cluster (B1)",
"Operational disruption / refinery-risk cluster (B2)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 252,
"B": 18,
"C": 3,
"D": 249,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 7,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 6,
"stale_gt24h_signals": 0,
"notes": "Freshness mix estimated from trend evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps and VIP/risk anomaly publish times within the last 24h window."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-GEO-CLUSTER",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Geopolitical and security-incident clustering is the dominant driver; price response is event-path dependent (headline risk).",
"evidence_refs": [
"T-001",
"T-002",
"T-050",
"T-003",
"T-005",
"T-051",
"T-025",
"T-010"
]
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-MACRO-HEADWIND",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Macro growth / recession-risk narrative provides real counterpressure (demand cap), increasing whipsaw probability if geopolitics cools.",
"evidence_refs": [
"T-049"
]
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SINGLE-SOURCE-OFFICIAL",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Single-source official supply-policy/supply-operations messaging exists; not enough alone to flip direction but can amplify reversal risk if corroborated.",
"evidence_refs": [
"VIP-008",
"RA-003",
"RA-004"
]
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SPARSE-SEED-RISK",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"description": "At least one high-impact operational risk item appears as seed-level / not materialised evidence (treat as fragile until corroborated).",
"evidence_refs": [
"RA-001"
]
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical escalation confirmations persist (0\u20136h window) without matching fresh de-escalation / demand-shock counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "While chokepoint / security-incident narratives remain in late-surge mode and news velocity is rapid."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a clear de-escalation signal (2+ independent sources within 2h) arrives or macro-demand shock evidence accelerates."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory evidence mass rises materially (contradiction ratio spikes) and conviction falls below 45."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 74,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Directional mass is driven by a broad, fresh, multi-source geopolitical/supply-risk cluster; authority confirmation is high but not required to sustain the bullish call.",
"Actual counterevidence present (macro/demand headwind + potential supply-response messaging), but not yet sufficient to neutralise the dominant supply-risk impulse.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h, multi-source, opposing hard invalidator observed in admitted corpus).",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative, evidence-assignment approximations based on trend publish/newest timestamps rather than full per-record tick data."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}