Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T22:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Uranium futures pricing bias is upward over the next 6 hours, driven by pro-nuclear policy and reactor/SMR demand narratives outweighing opposing supply signals. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
45 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Uranium futures sentiment remains net bullish over the next 24 hours with policy/demand tailwinds and multi-source reinforcement across mining and nuclear policy narratives. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Near-term volatility risk elevated despite bullish directionality due to narrative-driven catalysts (policy headlines, reactor approvals, procurement chatter) creating gap-risk. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-2026-04-09T22:05:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T22:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures pricing bias is upward over the next 6 hours, driven by fresh pro-nuclear policy and reactor build/SMR demand narratives outweighing any opposing supply signal in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains net bullish over the next 24 hours with a policy/demand-led tailwind and broad, multi-source reinforcement across mining and nuclear policy narratives.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term volatility risk is elevated despite bullish directionality due to narrative-driven catalysts (policy headlines, reactor approvals, procurement/contracting chatter) creating gap-risk without strong counterevidence.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 98,
"B": 12,
"C": 26,
"D": 210,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 18,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 55,
"stale_24_72h_est": 90,
"stale_over_72h_est": 183,
"note": "Freshness mix is an estimate derived from trend-level recency proxies and sampled fresh flags; overlap across trends likely."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Direction is policy/demand narrative-led; sudden policy headlines or procurement clarifications could shift sentiment quickly even without prior counterevidence."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Directional mass is broad at the trend level, but the last-24h timestamped evidence available to this run is clustered into a few hours; intraday signal shape may be under-resolved."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while bullish directional mass stays >= 75 and no fresh opposing cluster emerges within a 2-hour window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if high-impact policy/regulatory headlines print within the next 6 hours (e.g., reactor approvals/moratorium changes, fuel-cycle policy moves)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch only if two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear (e.g., surprise supply increases / contracting weakness) raising contradiction materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
"No admitted contradictory trend objects were provided (contradictions array empty); reversal risk reflects lack of fresh opposing evidence rather than hypothetical scenarios.",
"Authority tier counts are aggregated from trend-level summaries and likely double-count overlapping sources across trends.",
"State change assumes unknown prior baseline as neutral; hence 'new_bullish'."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}