Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T22:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures pricing bias is upward over the next 6 hours, driven by pro-nuclear policy and reactor/SMR demand narratives outweighing opposing supply signals. 62 up accelerating 6h false 45
uranium B-UR-002 Uranium futures sentiment remains net bullish over the next 24 hours with policy/demand tailwinds and multi-source reinforcement across mining and nuclear policy narratives. 60 up stable 24h false 45
uranium B-UR-003 Near-term volatility risk elevated despite bullish directionality due to narrative-driven catalysts (policy headlines, reactor approvals, procurement chatter) creating gap-risk. 58 mixed stable 24h false 45

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-2026-04-09T22:05:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T22:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures pricing bias is upward over the next 6 hours, driven by fresh pro-nuclear policy and reactor build/SMR demand narratives outweighing any opposing supply signal in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains net bullish over the next 24 hours with a policy/demand-led tailwind and broad, multi-source reinforcement across mining and nuclear policy narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term volatility risk is elevated despite bullish directionality due to narrative-driven catalysts (policy headlines, reactor approvals, procurement/contracting chatter) creating gap-risk without strong counterevidence.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 98,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 26,
 "D": 210,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 18,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 55,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 90,
 "stale_over_72h_est": 183,
 "note": "Freshness mix is an estimate derived from trend-level recency proxies and sampled fresh flags; overlap across trends likely."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Direction is policy/demand narrative-led; sudden policy headlines or procurement clarifications could shift sentiment quickly even without prior counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad at the trend level, but the last-24h timestamped evidence available to this run is clustered into a few hours; intraday signal shape may be under-resolved."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while bullish directional mass stays >= 75 and no fresh opposing cluster emerges within a 2-hour window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if high-impact policy/regulatory headlines print within the next 6 hours (e.g., reactor approvals/moratorium changes, fuel-cycle policy moves)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch only if two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear (e.g., surprise supply increases / contracting weakness) raising contradiction materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
 "No admitted contradictory trend objects were provided (contradictions array empty); reversal risk reflects lack of fresh opposing evidence rather than hypothetical scenarios.",
 "Authority tier counts are aggregated from trend-level summaries and likely double-count overlapping sources across trends.",
 "State change assumes unknown prior baseline as neutral; hence 'new_bullish'."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}