Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures (SI)
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_narrative_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T06:24:57Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SIL-001 | Net near-term macro + investment-flow narrative remains supportive for silver futures (risk/rates expectations + safe-haven framing), sustaining an upward bias into the next 24h absent fresh counter-evidence. | 63% | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| silver | B-SIL-002 | Industrial-demand framing (solar/electronics-related) remains a supportive background tailwind for silver sentiment over the next 24h, reinforcing bullish bias when paired with macro support. | 58% | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
| silver | B-SIL-003 | Near-term upside may be partially offset by supply-side development narratives, keeping a non-trivial chance of choppy/flat-to-mixed action in the next 6h even if the broader bias is positive. | 46% | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_20260409T062457Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T06:24:57Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures (SI)", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SIL-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Net near-term macro + investment-flow narrative remains supportive for silver futures (risk/rates expectations + safe-haven framing), sustaining an upward bias into the next 24h absent fresh counter-evidence.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "monetary_policy", "real_rates", "usd_strength", "investment_flows", "safe_haven_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Mine supply development / expansion narratives (supply-side overhang)", "Thin single-source VIP items (echo-risk) are not corroborative" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-SIL-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Industrial-demand framing (solar/electronics-related) remains a supportive background tailwind for silver sentiment over the next 24h, reinforcing bullish bias when paired with macro support.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "investment_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Supply-side expansion signals (mining development) may cap upside" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-SIL-003", "market": "silver", "claim": "Near-term upside may be partially offset by supply-side development narratives, keeping a non-trivial chance of choppy/flat-to-mixed action in the next 6h even if the broader bias is positive.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply", "positioning_noise" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh macro/flow support outweighs supply narrative in the latest window" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SIL-001", "B-SIL-002", "B-SIL-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 41, "B": 6, "C": 7, "D": 67, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_evidence_records_est": 12, "fresh_6_24h_evidence_records_est": 9, "fresh_24_72h_evidence_records_est": 4, "stale_gt_72h_evidence_records_est": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "macro_narrative_dependency", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "A meaningful share of bullish mass is driven by rates/central-bank expectations; sentiment can swing quickly on fresh macro prints." }, { "flag": "supply_overhang_competes_with_bullish_bias", "market": "silver", "severity": "low", "details": "Mining development / supply-chain expansion narratives are present and can dampen upside momentum even without explicit bearish corpus." }, { "flag": "echo_risk_from_single_source_vips", "market": "silver", "severity": "low", "details": "VIP outliers include multiple single-source items; treated as weak additive evidence only." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence continues to cluster inside the next 6h window with low contradiction, maintain long-bias watch posture (label-only).", "action": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh opposing signals appear) or net sentiment score drops below +20, elevate reversal monitoring.", "action": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse while directional score remains high, treat as fragile momentum and prioritise volatility monitoring.", "action": "volatility_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, 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"2026-04-09T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 12, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to 'silver'; single-market scope enforced.", "No explicit contradictory records were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal detection based on actual counterevidence remained low.", "Prior-state memory not provided; state_change computed as transition from implicit neutral baseline to current bullish." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }