Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_headline_whipsaw_risk (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T20:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SIL-001 Silver futures retain an upside bias as macro-rate expectations and USD/real-rate narratives remain supportive, keeping investment flows constructive. 64 up accelerating 6h false 42
silver B-SIL-002 Silver futures are supported by recurring industrial-demand framing (solar/electronics) and ETF/flow narratives, reinforcing a bullish backdrop over the next day. 62 up stable 24h false 42
silver B-SIL-003 Despite bullish directional mass, silver remains vulnerable to macro headline whipsaw (rate-path repricing), implying elevated short-horizon volatility risk versus trend certainty. 58 mixed stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260409T204500Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T20:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures retain an upside bias as macro-rate expectations and USD/real-rate narratives remain supportive, keeping investment flows constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fed / rate-expectations narrative (Powell / NY Fed / US rates)",
 "USD strength / real-rates sensitivity of precious metals",
 "Safe-haven bid alongside geopolitical tension framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures are supported by recurring industrial-demand framing (solar/electronics) and ETF/flow narratives, reinforcing a bullish backdrop over the next day.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Industrial demand (solar/electronics) narrative",
 "ETF/flows attention (iShares Silver Trust / related flow coverage)",
 "Mine supply / exploration news flow as supporting context"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Despite bullish directional mass, silver remains vulnerable to macro headline whipsaw (rate-path repricing), implying elevated short-horizon volatility risk versus trend certainty.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Macro communications sensitivity (rates/real rates)",
 "High narrative throughput across mixed-quality sources"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SIL-001",
 "B-SIL-002",
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 140,
 "B": 25,
 "C": 26,
 "D": 251,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate sum across admitted silver-relevant trend/vip evidence bundles; overlaps likely."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_proxy": 12,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_proxy": 9,
 "background_24h_plus_trend_count": 6,
 "note": "Proxy derived from available sample timestamps + trend temporal profiles; not full corpus bucketing."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directionality is strongly tied to rate/real-rate expectations; abrupt repricing could create fast pullbacks despite bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_tier_source_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Evidence breadth is high but a sizable share is lower-tier; conviction remains mass-driven, but fragility rises under fast narrative shifts."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_bucket_sparsity_timeseries_proxy",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Hourly timeseries uses only the timestamps exposed in samples (not all records), so intra-day bucket counts are conservative proxies."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional mass stays positive with continued fresh macro/flow confirmations and no emerging opposing evidence cluster."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Rate-path headlines or USD/real-rate surprise creates abrupt sentiment oscillation (rapid bucket-to-bucket score swings)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear and contradiction rises materially versus prior cycle."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -27,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 27,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 27,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -36,
 "acceleration_score": -50,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 27,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
 "No explicit contradictory trends/vip/risk items were provided for silver in the admitted set; counterevidence treated as low.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior; defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid spurious flip labeling."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}