Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_headline_whipsaw_risk (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T20:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SIL-001 |
Silver futures retain an upside bias as macro-rate expectations and USD/real-rate narratives remain supportive, keeping investment flows constructive. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
42 |
| silver |
B-SIL-002 |
Silver futures are supported by recurring industrial-demand framing (solar/electronics) and ETF/flow narratives, reinforcing a bullish backdrop over the next day. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
| silver |
B-SIL-003 |
Despite bullish directional mass, silver remains vulnerable to macro headline whipsaw (rate-path repricing), implying elevated short-horizon volatility risk versus trend certainty. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260409T204500Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T20:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures retain an upside bias as macro-rate expectations and USD/real-rate narratives remain supportive, keeping investment flows constructive.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fed / rate-expectations narrative (Powell / NY Fed / US rates)",
"USD strength / real-rates sensitivity of precious metals",
"Safe-haven bid alongside geopolitical tension framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures are supported by recurring industrial-demand framing (solar/electronics) and ETF/flow narratives, reinforcing a bullish backdrop over the next day.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Industrial demand (solar/electronics) narrative",
"ETF/flows attention (iShares Silver Trust / related flow coverage)",
"Mine supply / exploration news flow as supporting context"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Despite bullish directional mass, silver remains vulnerable to macro headline whipsaw (rate-path repricing), implying elevated short-horizon volatility risk versus trend certainty.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Macro communications sensitivity (rates/real rates)",
"High narrative throughput across mixed-quality sources"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SIL-001",
"B-SIL-002",
"B-SIL-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 140,
"B": 25,
"C": 26,
"D": 251,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate sum across admitted silver-relevant trend/vip evidence bundles; overlaps likely."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_proxy": 12,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_proxy": 9,
"background_24h_plus_trend_count": 6,
"note": "Proxy derived from available sample timestamps + trend temporal profiles; not full corpus bucketing."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directionality is strongly tied to rate/real-rate expectations; abrupt repricing could create fast pullbacks despite bullish mass."
},
{
"flag": "low_tier_source_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Evidence breadth is high but a sizable share is lower-tier; conviction remains mass-driven, but fragility rises under fast narrative shifts."
},
{
"flag": "data_bucket_sparsity_timeseries_proxy",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Hourly timeseries uses only the timestamps exposed in samples (not all records), so intra-day bucket counts are conservative proxies."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional mass stays positive with continued fresh macro/flow confirmations and no emerging opposing evidence cluster."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Rate-path headlines or USD/real-rate surprise creates abrupt sentiment oscillation (rapid bucket-to-bucket score swings)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear and contradiction rises materially versus prior cycle."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -27,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 27,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -36,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
"No explicit contradictory trends/vip/risk items were provided for silver in the admitted set; counterevidence treated as low.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior; defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid spurious flip labeling."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}