Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas (and LNG-linked) risk premium is biased higher as geopolitical and infrastructure-disruption narratives remain fresh and broadly reinforced. 62 up accelerating 6h false 61
natural_gas B-NG-002 Despite elevated geopolitical narratives, price direction is fragile: rapid de-escalation / clarification could pull natural gas back into a mixed-to-rangebound regime within 24h. 46 mixed stable 24h false 61

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260409T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term natural gas (and LNG-linked) risk premium is biased higher as geopolitical and infrastructure-disruption narratives remain fresh and broadly reinforced.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows", "pipeline_infrastructure", "production_outages" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Despite elevated geopolitical narratives, price direction is fragile: rapid de-escalation / clarification could pull natural gas back into a mixed-to-rangebound regime within 24h.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 12, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 0, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 9, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 2, "stale_over_24h_signals": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional mass is strong but driven by event-risk narratives that can reverse quickly on de-escalation or confirmation/denial." }, { "flag": "lng_transmission_uncertainty", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A portion of the signal is mediated via global LNG flows; basis/translation into Henry Hub can be nonlinear." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Late-surge clustering of updates increases short-horizon whipsaw probability even without explicit counterevidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh evidence persists in the last 6h." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if geopolitical/infrastructure headlines accelerate (e.g., multiple independent updates inside 2h) or if contradiction ratio rises materially." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if fresh counter-signal appears (>=2 independent opposing records inside 2h) or if directional_score_signed drops below +20." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -23, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 18, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed assuming neutral baseline for first observed cycle.", "No explicit contradictory records were supplied in the admitted corpus; reversal_risk reflects event-driven whipsaw risk rather than observed counterevidence.", "Signal is dominated by geopolitics/infrastructure narratives; direct storage/degree-day/production datapoints were not present in the provided trend set." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }