Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T08:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-6h-001 | Gold futures are likely to remain rangebound/mixed over the next 6h because the available driver set is predominantly stale and lacks fresh confirmation inside the last 72h. | 56 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 78 |
| gold | B-gold-24h-001 | Gold futures upside pressure exists as a background thesis (safe-haven framing), but conviction is capped by staleness and thin fresh evidence; net 24h bias is neutral-to-slightly-up at best. | 52 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 35, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-gold-6h-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures are likely to remain rangebound/mixed over the next 6h because the available driver set is predominantly stale and lacks fresh confirmation inside the last 72h.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk (stale corpus; early March cluster)", "gold trade/logistics headlines (stale, sparse, single-source)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-24h-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures upside pressure exists as a background thesis (safe-haven framing), but conviction is capped by staleness and thin fresh evidence; net 24h bias is neutral-to-slightly-up at best.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk (background persistent, but stale)", "macro/policy references present but not fresh (rates/yields channel not updated in-window)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 36, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "invalidated_stale", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 42, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-6h-001", "B-gold-24h-001" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 62, "B": 6, "C": 3, "D": 118, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h": 0, "mid_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt72h": 7 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "high", "details": "Most admitted gold-relevant drivers are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (generally >72h old and largely outside a 30d window as of 2026-04-09), so directional conviction is suppressed." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity", "severity": "high", "details": "Insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence inside the last 24-72h to support a strong bullish/bearish call under suppress_direction_if_degraded=true." }, { "flag": "narrative_persistence_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Safe-haven/geopolitical framing persists in background but is not refreshed; risk of over-weighting old escalation narratives." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "stay_flat until fresh (<=72h) gold-specific catalysts appear or macro drivers (real rates/USD) update with clear direction." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if any fresh escalation/official shock appears (<=2h) that materially changes contradiction ratio versus this stale baseline." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if fresh evidence emerges that directly reduces safe-haven demand (e.g., verified de-escalation) after a period of stale escalation dominance." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, 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"2026-04-09T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 5, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold'; scope forced to single_market.", "Gold-direction signals are dominated by stale geopolitical-risk narratives dated 2026-03-04..2026-03-09; freshness confidence is LOW as of 2026-04-09.", "suppress_direction_if_degraded=true applied: directional_state kept neutral_mixed despite mild background safe-haven skew.", "A small, very recent risk seed (2026-04-09T07:02:57Z) was treated as weak/insufficient to upgrade direction; no late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }