Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-data_sparsity_timeseries
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Copper futures retain an upward bias as electrification / grid build-out narratives stay dominant and continue to receive fresh reinforcement. 63 up accelerating 6h false 36
copper B2 Over the next 24h, bullish copper sentiment remains supported by ongoing policy / industrial-modernisation narratives and tight-supply framing (mine disruption risk). 66 up stable 24h false 36
copper B3 Trade-policy signalling keeps short-horizon copper volatility elevated even if the directional bias stays positive. 57 mixed accelerating 24h false 36

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260409T070000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures retain an upward bias as electrification / grid build-out narratives stay dominant and continue to receive fresh reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, bullish copper sentiment remains supported by ongoing policy / industrial-modernisation narratives and tight-supply framing (mine disruption risk).",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "energy_transition_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy signalling keeps short-horizon copper volatility elevated even if the directional bias stays positive.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 38,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 6,
 "signals_6_24h": 2,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_gt_72h": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-data_sparsity_timeseries",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Hourly timeseries is derived from limited in-message timestamp samples; true intra-day evidence density may be undercounted."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-policy_volatility",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Trade-policy narrative presence can amplify short-horizon swings even without explicit counter-direction evidence in the admitted set."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-background_narrative_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Several supporting narratives span multiple weeks; conviction relies on continued fresh reinforcement rather than a single discrete catalyst."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh reinforcement continues and no credible opposing evidence cluster emerges in the last 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (higher recency-weighted density) without matching demand/supply confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch if 2+ independent opposing signals appear within <=2h and contradiction ratio rises materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "velocity_score": 15,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -29,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 22,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change derived using an assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior).",
 "source_tier_counts uses conservative per-tier maxima across admitted trend bundles (not a deduplicated union) to avoid obvious inflation from overlapping evidence sets."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}