- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T23:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as energy-transition and grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain fresh and accelerating. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Supply-side disruption narratives (Chile/Codelco operational risk) keep an upside-supportive tail-risk bid embedded in sentiment. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Trade-policy headline risk is a credible near-term volatility driver that can trigger sharp, fast reversals despite positive base sentiment. |
42 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260409-copper-0001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T23:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as broad energy-transition + grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain fresh and accelerating in the latest window.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"infrastructure_investment"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption narratives (Chile/Codelco-linked operational risk) keep an upside-supportive tail-risk bid embedded in copper sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"supply_constraints"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headline risk is a credible near-term volatility driver that can trigger sharp, fast reversals even if the base directional sentiment stays positive.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"policy_uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 16,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 30,
"U": 0,
"note": "Representative authority-tier mix taken from the most copper-relevant, freshest trend bundles (overlap across bundles means counts are not additive)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_observed_last_24h": 6,
"stale_background_signals_observed_gt_72h": 3,
"note": "Fresh/stale mix estimated from each admitted bundle's newest timestamps and sample is_fresh flags; underlying per-record timestamp distribution not fully provided to 6B."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-copper-001",
"label": "trade_policy_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy and compliance-gap anomaly stream can inject abrupt, high-volatility moves that increase reversal probability despite bullish base mass."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-copper-002",
"label": "background_narrative_staleness_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several supportive themes are slow-burn (>7d span). Fresh confirmations exist, so no stale suppression was applied, but the backdrop can dilute momentum if new catalysts pause."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish mass stays dominant AND fresh supportive evidence persists over the next 6h without a contradiction spike."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any new trade-policy headline cluster appears OR contradiction ratio rises materially in the newest window."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing copper-direction signals emerge OR a clear direction flip is detected in the hourly timeseries."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set to new_bullish under an implicit neutral prior assumption.",
"No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided (contradictions[] empty); reversal_risk elevated to medium primarily from policy/trade uncertainty risk streams rather than observed opposing price-direction evidence.",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative, recency-weighted reconstructions using bundle-level recency/heat/velocity hints; per-record timestamp distributions were not fully available in this 6B input."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}