• subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T23:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as energy-transition and grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain fresh and accelerating. 66 up accelerating 6h false 44
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side disruption narratives (Chile/Codelco operational risk) keep an upside-supportive tail-risk bid embedded in sentiment. 58 up stable 24h false 44
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy headline risk is a credible near-term volatility driver that can trigger sharp, fast reversals despite positive base sentiment. 42 mixed accelerating 24h false 44
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260409-copper-0001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T23:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as broad energy-transition + grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain fresh and accelerating in the latest window.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "infrastructure_investment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption narratives (Chile/Codelco-linked operational risk) keep an upside-supportive tail-risk bid embedded in copper sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "supply_constraints"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headline risk is a credible near-term volatility driver that can trigger sharp, fast reversals even if the base directional sentiment stays positive.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "policy_uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 16,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 30,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Representative authority-tier mix taken from the most copper-relevant, freshest trend bundles (overlap across bundles means counts are not additive)."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_observed_last_24h": 6,
 "stale_background_signals_observed_gt_72h": 3,
 "note": "Fresh/stale mix estimated from each admitted bundle's newest timestamps and sample is_fresh flags; underlying per-record timestamp distribution not fully provided to 6B."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-copper-001",
 "label": "trade_policy_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy and compliance-gap anomaly stream can inject abrupt, high-volatility moves that increase reversal probability despite bullish base mass."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-copper-002",
 "label": "background_narrative_staleness_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several supportive themes are slow-burn (>7d span). Fresh confirmations exist, so no stale suppression was applied, but the backdrop can dilute momentum if new catalysts pause."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish mass stays dominant AND fresh supportive evidence persists over the next 6h without a contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any new trade-policy headline cluster appears OR contradiction ratio rises materially in the newest window."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing copper-direction signals emerge OR a clear direction flip is detected in the hourly timeseries."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.095,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.085,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.065,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.055,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set to new_bullish under an implicit neutral prior assumption.",
 "No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided (contradictions[] empty); reversal_risk elevated to medium primarily from policy/trade uncertainty risk streams rather than observed opposing price-direction evidence.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative, recency-weighted reconstructions using bundle-level recency/heat/velocity hints; per-record timestamp distributions were not fully available in this 6B input."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}