Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_freight_shock (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T21:49:44Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B_coffee_01_supply_risk_premium Near-term supply-side risk premium (origin supply + crop/weather risk signals, incl. robusta/origin refs) supports higher coffee futures over next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
coffee B_coffee_02_freight_geopolitics_cost_push Logistics/geopolitical disruption themes add cost/lead-time uncertainty, supporting an upside skew in coffee futures over the next 6–24h. 58 up stable 6h false 48
coffee B_coffee_03_consumption_support Consumption-side corporate signals modestly support demand expectations and help maintain an upward bias absent counterevidence. 55 up fading 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_2026-04-09T21:49:44Z_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T21:49:44Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B_coffee_01_supply_risk_premium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-side risk premium (origin supply + crop/weather risk signals in coffee-related contexts, incl. robusta/origin references) is supportive of higher coffee futures over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B_coffee_02_freight_geopolitics_cost_push",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Logistics/geopolitical disruption themes are adding cost/lead-time uncertainty, supporting an upside skew in coffee futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "labour_costs"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B_coffee_03_consumption_support",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Consumption-side corporate signals (coffee retail/product activity) are modestly supportive of demand expectations and help maintain an upward bias absent counterevidence.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B_coffee_01_supply_risk_premium",
 "B_coffee_02_freight_geopolitics_cost_push",
 "B_coffee_03_consumption_support"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 77,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 194,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "newest_evidence_utc": "2026-04-09T21:49:44Z",
 "oldest_evidence_utc": "2026-04-05T12:22:03Z",
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 22,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 64,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 40,
 "stale_72h_plus_est": 0,
 "notes": "Freshness mix is estimated from trend-level newest/oldest proxies; per-record timestamp histograms were not available to 6B."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "geopolitical_freight_shock",
 "market": "coffee",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Shipping/logistics disruption themes can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines; contributes to medium reversal risk despite bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_indirectness",
 "market": "coffee",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Several admitted signals are thematic (risk/cost/logistics) rather than explicit coffee balance-sheet datapoints; conviction kept moderate."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "low_contradiction_but_event_driven",
 "market": "coffee",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Corpus shows little explicit counterevidence, but event-driven markets can gap on new information; watch for late-breaking invalidators."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh coffee-origin supply/weather disruption evidence continues (next 6h) without credible counterevidence, bullish bias remains preferred."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) signals indicate easing logistics constraints or improving origin supply conditions, reassess for bullish-to-neutral transition."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitics/shipping headlines accelerate (more frequent high-authority updates), expect higher volatility even if direction stays bullish."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market constraint enforced.",
 "Trend admission favoured signals with explicit coffee/coffee-chain references (e.g., robusta/origin/coffee entities and coffee consumption channels); several broad ag/macro items were left unmapped rather than force-mapped.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven mainly by event-driven geopolitics/logistics sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Signal timeseries is a conservative heuristic layer (structure-complete) because 6B did not receive per-record timestamp distributions; bucket values reflect recency-weighted drift implied by trend-level temporal profiles."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}