Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_freight_shock (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T21:49:44Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B_coffee_01_supply_risk_premium | Near-term supply-side risk premium (origin supply + crop/weather risk signals, incl. robusta/origin refs) supports higher coffee futures over next 24h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B_coffee_02_freight_geopolitics_cost_push | Logistics/geopolitical disruption themes add cost/lead-time uncertainty, supporting an upside skew in coffee futures over the next 6–24h. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B_coffee_03_consumption_support | Consumption-side corporate signals modestly support demand expectations and help maintain an upward bias absent counterevidence. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_2026-04-09T21:49:44Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T21:49:44Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B_coffee_01_supply_risk_premium",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-side risk premium (origin supply + crop/weather risk signals in coffee-related contexts, incl. robusta/origin references) is supportive of higher coffee futures over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B_coffee_02_freight_geopolitics_cost_push",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Logistics/geopolitical disruption themes are adding cost/lead-time uncertainty, supporting an upside skew in coffee futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B_coffee_03_consumption_support",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Consumption-side corporate signals (coffee retail/product activity) are modestly supportive of demand expectations and help maintain an upward bias absent counterevidence.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B_coffee_01_supply_risk_premium",
"B_coffee_02_freight_geopolitics_cost_push",
"B_coffee_03_consumption_support"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 77,
"B": 4,
"C": 4,
"D": 194,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"newest_evidence_utc": "2026-04-09T21:49:44Z",
"oldest_evidence_utc": "2026-04-05T12:22:03Z",
"fresh_0_6h_est": 22,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 64,
"stale_24_72h_est": 40,
"stale_72h_plus_est": 0,
"notes": "Freshness mix is estimated from trend-level newest/oldest proxies; per-record timestamp histograms were not available to 6B."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "geopolitical_freight_shock",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Shipping/logistics disruption themes can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines; contributes to medium reversal risk despite bullish bias."
},
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_indirectness",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted signals are thematic (risk/cost/logistics) rather than explicit coffee balance-sheet datapoints; conviction kept moderate."
},
{
"risk_flag": "low_contradiction_but_event_driven",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Corpus shows little explicit counterevidence, but event-driven markets can gap on new information; watch for late-breaking invalidators."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh coffee-origin supply/weather disruption evidence continues (next 6h) without credible counterevidence, bullish bias remains preferred."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) signals indicate easing logistics constraints or improving origin supply conditions, reassess for bullish-to-neutral transition."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitics/shipping headlines accelerate (more frequent high-authority updates), expect higher volatility even if direction stays bullish."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market constraint enforced.",
"Trend admission favoured signals with explicit coffee/coffee-chain references (e.g., robusta/origin/coffee entities and coffee consumption channels); several broad ag/macro items were left unmapped rather than force-mapped.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven mainly by event-driven geopolitics/logistics sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Signal timeseries is a conservative heuristic layer (structure-complete) because 6B did not receive per-record timestamp distributions; bucket values reflect recency-weighted drift implied by trend-level temporal profiles."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}