Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-volatility-fragility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T08:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term coffee futures pricing bias remains upward as supply-side risk narratives around robusta persist. 63 up stable 24h false 52
coffee B-coffee-2 Demand-side narratives provide additional upward pressure, indirect and may transmit to futures with lag. 58 up fading 24h false 52
coffee B-coffee-3 Operational/logistics and input-cost narratives increase volatility risk, raising fragility even if directional bias stays modestly positive. 60 mixed stable 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260409T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing bias remains upward as supply-side risk narratives around robusta (crop/production risks) persist with fresh reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "origin_supply",
 "weather_disruptions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (consumer preference/supportive consumption tone) provide additional upward pressure, but are indirect and may transmit to futures with lag.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Operational/logistics and input-cost narratives increase volatility risk for coffee flows, raising fragility even if directional bias stays modestly positive.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "labour_costs",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2",
 "B-coffee-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 31,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 84,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_context_signals": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-volatility-fragility",
 "market": "coffee",
 "level": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional support is present, but cross-domain operational/logistics and input-cost narratives (some not cleanly coffee-mapped) can amplify whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-indirect-demand-transmission",
 "market": "coffee",
 "level": "medium",
 "rationale": "Demand narratives are partly retail/consumer-facing and may not translate cleanly into near-term futures direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with no fresh opposing (bearish) evidence cluster in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially (>= 0.25) or fragility climbs above 65 on fresh mixed evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<= 2h) opposing coffee-specific signals appear, raising kill-switch eligibility."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Conviction drops below 45 due to data sparsity or contradiction spike."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 24,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 3,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as coffee.",
 "Coffee-admitted trend themes used: robusta supply risk; coffee consumer preference/demand tone; coffee-production/programme context.",
 "Several non-coffee-explicit macro/agri/logistics trends were observed but not force-mapped to coffee under alias constraints; treated as volatility/fragility context only.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish from an unknown prior baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}