Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-volatility-fragility
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T08:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Near-term coffee futures pricing bias remains upward as supply-side risk narratives around robusta persist. |
63 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Demand-side narratives provide additional upward pressure, indirect and may transmit to futures with lag. |
58 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
52 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-3 |
Operational/logistics and input-cost narratives increase volatility risk, raising fragility even if directional bias stays modestly positive. |
60 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260409T080000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing bias remains upward as supply-side risk narratives around robusta (crop/production risks) persist with fresh reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply",
"weather_disruptions"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (consumer preference/supportive consumption tone) provide additional upward pressure, but are indirect and may transmit to futures with lag.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Operational/logistics and input-cost narratives increase volatility risk for coffee flows, raising fragility even if directional bias stays modestly positive.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2",
"B-coffee-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 31,
"B": 0,
"C": 1,
"D": 84,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 1,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_context_signals": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-volatility-fragility",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"rationale": "Directional support is present, but cross-domain operational/logistics and input-cost narratives (some not cleanly coffee-mapped) can amplify whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-indirect-demand-transmission",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"rationale": "Demand narratives are partly retail/consumer-facing and may not translate cleanly into near-term futures direction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with no fresh opposing (bearish) evidence cluster in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially (>= 0.25) or fragility climbs above 65 on fresh mixed evidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<= 2h) opposing coffee-specific signals appear, raising kill-switch eligibility."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Conviction drops below 45 due to data sparsity or contradiction spike."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 3,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as coffee.",
"Coffee-admitted trend themes used: robusta supply risk; coffee consumer preference/demand tone; coffee-production/programme context.",
"Several non-coffee-explicit macro/agri/logistics trends were observed but not force-mapped to coffee under alias constraints; treated as volatility/fragility context only.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish from an unknown prior baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}