Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_risk_premium (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T21:50:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-1 Geopolitical tension focused on Iran/Israel and maritime chokepoints sustains an oil risk-premium bias (Brent skewed upward vs baseline) over the next 6–24 hours. 62 up accelerating 24h false 57
crude_oil B-CO-2 Near-term oil direction is dominated by event-risk rather than demand fundamentals; volatility risk is elevated even if directional bias remains upward. 70 mixed stable 6h false 57
crude_oil B-CO-3 Uncorroborated operational/supply-disruption outliers (Saudi facilities / infrastructure-attack chatter) add upside tail-risk but are too concentrated to raise baseline conviction materially without second-source confirmation. 38 up fading 6h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260409T215000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T21:50:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical tension focused on Iran/Israel and maritime chokepoints sustains an oil risk-premium bias (Brent skewed upward vs baseline) over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "shipping / chokepoint risk (Strait of Hormuz framing)",
 "headline-driven supply-risk repricing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term oil direction is dominated by event-risk rather than demand fundamentals; volatility risk is elevated even if directional bias remains upward.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "headline churn / fast-cycle updates",
 "options-style repricing dynamics (inference from spike-and-fade temporal profiles)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Uncorroborated operational/supply-disruption outliers (Saudi facilities / infrastructure-attack chatter) add upside tail-risk but are too concentrated to raise baseline conviction materially without second-source confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "national_oil_companies",
 "supply_chain_disruption",
 "single-source operational alerts (echo-risk)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-1",
 "B-CO-2",
 "B-CO-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 11,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 8,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 10,
 "stale_24_72h_signals": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_risk_premium",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Dominant admitted evidence cluster is geopolitics/chokepoints; direction can swing on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "single_source_operational_outliers",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers reference supply/infrastructure risk but are each highly concentrated (echo-risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Many signals show spike-and-fade temporal profiles, consistent with fast mean-reversion in attention."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "counterevidence_sparse_not_absent",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Little explicit fresh bearish fundamental evidence present in admitted set; absence is not treated as contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional independent confirmation of supply-route disruption / escalation headlines within the next 6 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Conflicting de-escalation vs escalation headlines within a 2-hour window, or rapid churn in chokepoint-related reporting."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-restoration signals that reduce geopolitical risk-premium framing."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If the signal becomes dominated by stale repeats without new confirmation (stale-suppression condition)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change computed assuming neutral prior baseline for this run.",
 "No explicit contradictory evidence objects supplied in input (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); reversal risk set to medium primarily due to event-driven whipsaw characteristics rather than observed counter-direction mass.",
 "Signal timeseries is an approximate shape derived from trend-level timestamps/temporal profiles available in the admitted corpus (not from full per-record timestamp distributions).",
 "Multiple single-source VIP outliers (echo-risk flagged) were treated as tail-risk amplifiers, not as baseline directional mass."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}