Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_risk_premium (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-09T21:50:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-1 |
Geopolitical tension focused on Iran/Israel and maritime chokepoints sustains an oil risk-premium bias (Brent skewed upward vs baseline) over the next 6–24 hours. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
57 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-2 |
Near-term oil direction is dominated by event-risk rather than demand fundamentals; volatility risk is elevated even if directional bias remains upward. |
70 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
57 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-3 |
Uncorroborated operational/supply-disruption outliers (Saudi facilities / infrastructure-attack chatter) add upside tail-risk but are too concentrated to raise baseline conviction materially without second-source confirmation. |
38 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260409T215000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T21:50:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical tension focused on Iran/Israel and maritime chokepoints sustains an oil risk-premium bias (Brent skewed upward vs baseline) over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"shipping / chokepoint risk (Strait of Hormuz framing)",
"headline-driven supply-risk repricing"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term oil direction is dominated by event-risk rather than demand fundamentals; volatility risk is elevated even if directional bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"headline churn / fast-cycle updates",
"options-style repricing dynamics (inference from spike-and-fade temporal profiles)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Uncorroborated operational/supply-disruption outliers (Saudi facilities / infrastructure-attack chatter) add upside tail-risk but are too concentrated to raise baseline conviction materially without second-source confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"national_oil_companies",
"supply_chain_disruption",
"single-source operational alerts (echo-risk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-1",
"B-CO-2",
"B-CO-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 11,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 8,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 7,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 10,
"stale_24_72h_signals": 0,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_risk_premium",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Dominant admitted evidence cluster is geopolitics/chokepoints; direction can swing on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "single_source_operational_outliers",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple VIP outliers reference supply/infrastructure risk but are each highly concentrated (echo-risk)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Many signals show spike-and-fade temporal profiles, consistent with fast mean-reversion in attention."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "counterevidence_sparse_not_absent",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Little explicit fresh bearish fundamental evidence present in admitted set; absence is not treated as contradiction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional independent confirmation of supply-route disruption / escalation headlines within the next 6 hours."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Conflicting de-escalation vs escalation headlines within a 2-hour window, or rapid churn in chokepoint-related reporting."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-restoration signals that reduce geopolitical risk-premium framing."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If the signal becomes dominated by stale repeats without new confirmation (stale-suppression condition)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change computed assuming neutral prior baseline for this run.",
"No explicit contradictory evidence objects supplied in input (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); reversal risk set to medium primarily due to event-driven whipsaw characteristics rather than observed counter-direction mass.",
"Signal timeseries is an approximate shape derived from trend-level timestamps/temporal profiles available in the admitted corpus (not from full per-record timestamp distributions).",
"Multiple single-source VIP outliers (echo-risk flagged) were treated as tail-risk amplifiers, not as baseline directional mass."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}