Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: Driver concentration: geopolitics-heavy (headline whipsaw risk)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-09T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h Near-term crude benchmarks retain an elevated geopolitical risk premium (shipping/security disruption narrative dominant), biasing prices upward over the next 6 hours. 64 up accelerating 6h false 63
crude_oil B-crude_oil-volatility_bid-24h Over the next 24 hours, crude direction remains upward-biased but more fragile; volatility is likely to stay elevated and direction can soften quickly if de-escalation headlines appear. 58 up stable 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260409T120000Z-BRN-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude benchmarks retain an elevated geopolitical risk premium (shipping/security disruption narrative dominant), biasing prices upward over the next 6 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical disruption (Iran / Gulf / Strait of Hormuz related narratives)",
 "Maritime security / chokepoint risk themes",
 "High cross-source repetition in the most recent window (multiple Tier-A anchors present)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-volatility_bid-24h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, crude direction remains upward-biased but more fragile; volatility is likely to stay elevated and direction can soften quickly if de-escalation headlines appear.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Event-driven headline flow dominates",
 "Broad but geopolitics-heavy driver concentration (tail-risk bid)",
 "Limited explicit counterevidence present in admitted corpus"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h",
 "B-crude_oil-volatility_bid-24h"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 230,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 13,
 "D": 245,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count": 170,
 "fresh_6_24h_count": 240,
 "stale_24_72h_count": 90,
 "stale_gt_72h_count": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-geo-driver-concentration",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "Driver concentration: geopolitics-heavy (headline whipsaw risk)",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad but clustered around geopolitical/maritime disruption themes; reversal risk increases if de-escalation headlines emerge."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-event-driven-gap-risk",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "Event-driven volatility / gap risk",
 "details": "Signal dominated by fast-moving geopolitical updates; price reactions may be discontinuous."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-counterevidence-thin",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "label": "Explicit counterevidence sparse in admitted corpus",
 "details": "Few/no mapped opposing (downward) evidence clusters were present in the admitted set; conviction reduction is therefore driven by event fragility rather than contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical / chokepoint disruption narrative remains dominant AND no fresh opposing de-escalation cluster emerges in the next 2-6 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) de-escalation or supply-restoration signal cluster appears from 2+ independent sources, raising near-term contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains elevated (new clusters each hour) while directional score plateaus, implying choppy price response."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 24,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 32,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 35,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 26,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-09T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-09T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 23,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradictory record sets were provided in workflow5b_output.contradictions; contradiction ratio kept low in synthesis.",
 "State change inferred versus unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
 "Momentum marked strengthening due to clustered late-surge timestamps (approx 03:00-07:00Z) and high recency-weighted heat in multiple admitted trends."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}