Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-echo-risk-singletons
  • generated_at: 2026-04-08T21:50:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-01 Silver directional perception is net-positive over the next 6–24 hours, supported by a broad, fresh cluster of silver-linked narratives (industrial demand + silver-specific investment vehicles + mining/supply-chain context) with low observed contradiction. 62 up accelerating 24h false 38
silver B-silver-02 Near-term silver momentum is strengthening because the freshest evidence density is concentrated in the most recent hours rather than being solely a stale, persistent theme. 59 up accelerating 6h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260408T215000Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T21:50:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver directional perception is net-positive over the next 6\u201324 hours, supported by a broad, fresh cluster of silver-linked narratives (industrial demand + silver-specific investment vehicles + mining/supply-chain context) with low observed contradiction.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Silver Institute-linked industrial demand narrative (industrial usage / solar-electronics adjacency)",
 "Silver investment vehicle attention/flow narratives (iShares Silver Trust; Sprott Physical Silver Trust)",
 "Mining development / supply-chain development coverage (precious metals / silver miners)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term silver momentum is strengthening because the freshest evidence density is concentrated in the most recent hours rather than being solely a stale, persistent theme.",
 "probability_pct": 59,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh silver-linked evidence timestamps clustered within the last ~6 hours across multiple admitted trends/VIP lanes",
 "Low contradiction/consistency scores near 1.0 among admitted items"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-01",
 "B-silver-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 77,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 15,
 "D": 165,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3,
 "stale_gt24h_signal_count": 2,
 "note": "Counts reflect admitted trend/vip/risk items, not de-duplicated per-article evidence."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-echo-risk-singletons",
 "market": "silver",
 "risk": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some supportive VIP-lane signals are single-source (echo-risk flagged). This does not negate the broader bullish mass, but increases fragility if broader confirmation fades."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-macro-sensitivity",
 "market": "silver",
 "risk": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Silver narrative set shows strong coupling to monetary-policy/real-rate framing; rapid shifts in that framing can cause short-horizon whipsaws even without direct silver-specific news."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain net directional_score_signed >= +20 across the next 2\u20133 hourly buckets with contradiction_ratio <= 0.15 and no fresh opposing cluster emerging."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above 0.20 or directional_score_signed swings by >= 30 points within 2 hours, treat as volatility regime and reassess."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If two or more independent opposing (bearish) items appear within <= 2 hours and directional_score_signed falls below +10, elevate reversal monitoring."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 11,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'silver'; scope constrained to single-market output.",
 "No explicit contradictory records were present in the admitted signal set; counterevidence scored as low by absence rather than by suppression.",
 "Several macro-only trends could not be confidently alias-mapped to a canonical commodity market key; they were not force-mapped (see unmapped count note).",
 "Unmapped_signal_count_estimate: 5 (macro-only / non-silver-aliased items in trends+VIP lane).",
 "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted bundles and are not de-duplicated across overlapping evidence records."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}