Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: late_day_mixed_headlines
- generated_at: 2026-04-08T23:02:07Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-1 | Near-term LNG supply disruption risk (Qatar/pipeline-security narratives) is sustaining upside pressure on natural gas futures. | 62 | up | fading | 6h | false | 62 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-2 | Risk premium may partially unwind if restoration of disrupted LNG operations is credibly progressing, dampening further upside in natural gas futures. | 38 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-3 | Operational outage/sabotage risk remains a non-trivial tail catalyst that can re-intensify bullish pressure on natural gas futures with little notice. | 44 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260408T230207Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T23:02:07Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-1", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term LNG supply disruption risk (Qatar/pipeline-security narratives) is sustaining upside pressure on natural gas futures.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "LNG supply disruption / restoration uncertainty in Qatar-linked narratives", "Pipeline/infrastructure security risk narratives (Europe/Middle East spillover into LNG risk premium)", "Broad multi-source coverage with fresh updates inside 24h" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-2", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Risk premium may partially unwind if restoration of disrupted LNG operations is credibly progressing, dampening further upside in natural gas futures.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Fresh coverage indicating restoration / restart expectations (supply-normalisation narrative)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-1", "B-NG-3" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-3", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Operational outage/sabotage risk remains a non-trivial tail catalyst that can re-intensify bullish pressure on natural gas futures with little notice.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Infrastructure/security incident narratives and outage-risk flags", "High impact/short-horizon disruption framing" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-1", "B-NG-3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 190, "B": 5, "C": 3, "D": 307, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.22, "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.48, "fresh_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.2, "stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "late_day_mixed_headlines", "severity": "medium", "details": "Fresh supply-normalisation headlines co-exist with fresh disruption/security risk headlines, increasing near-term whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_domination", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional inference is dominated by geopolitical/LNG risk narratives rather than direct US storage/weather/production datapoints." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Spike-and-fade / late-surge profiles suggest sentiment can reverse quickly with small incremental updates." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional independent confirmation of material LNG outages / export-flow disruption arrives within the next 6h without matching restoration confirmation." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If credible restoration/restart timelines firm up across 2+ independent high-authority sources, reducing disruption uncertainty." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If new infrastructure/security incidents emerge (or outage-risk flags upgrade), expect fast repricing and wider intraday ranges." }, { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases further (fresh opposing signals cluster) and net directional score falls inside the neutral band." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T05:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T06:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T06:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T07:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 34, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 32, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 36, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T15:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T16:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T16:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:02:07Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:02:07Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 46, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.", "Most admitted signals are LNG/geopolitical/infrastructure-security narratives; direct storage/weather/production datapoints are not present in the admitted set.", "Contradiction set is empty in inputs; reversal risk is inferred from mixed fresh narratives (disruption vs restoration/normalisation).", "Some seed-level risk anomalies have low confidence and are treated as tail-risk contributors (not primary conviction drivers)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }