Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 1
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-08T23:01:41Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures near-term direction is mixed/rangebound because gold-specific evidence is sparse and the available signals are stale and low-corroboration. 55 mixed fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
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 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260408T230141Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T23:01:41Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
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 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
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 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
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 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
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 "stale_geopolitical_context_only",
 "mixed_single_source_gold_flow_mentions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
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 "state_change": "unchanged",
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 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
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 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
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 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
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 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
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 },
 {
 "flag": "mixed_low_authority_inputs",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Gold-mapped signals conflict (positive vs negative) and lack Tier-A breadth, increasing fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance until >=3 gold-mapped, multi-source signals arrive within the last 72h (or a high-authority hard catalyst appears)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if fresh USD/real-rates or major geopolitical escalation headlines explicitly reference gold/safe-haven flows."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) gold-specific opposing signal cluster appears from 2+ independent sources, reassess for a rapid state flip."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
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 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
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 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
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 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "resolution": "30m",
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 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
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 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
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 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Gold-mapped evidence is below min_evidence_threshold=3; directional call suppressed to neutral_mixed.",
 "Most high-volume trends in the batch are geopolitical and map more naturally to energy (oil) rather than gold by alias; they were not force-mapped to gold.",
 "Gold-specific VIP signals present are single-source and stale (>72h), increasing fragility."
 ]
 },
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}