Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: N/A
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_last_72h (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-08 09:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-gold-6h-001 |
Gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed due to insufficient fresh (<=72h) driver evidence; any residual support from risk/macro themes is stale. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
82 |
| gold |
B-gold-24h-001 |
Over the next 24h, gold futures directional bias remains unclear (rangebound / mixed) because the admitted corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives and lacks fresh confirming catalysts. |
54 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260408T090000Z-gold",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-6h-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed due to insufficient fresh (<=72h) driver evidence; any residual support from risk/macro themes is stale.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk (stale signals)",
"real_rates / policy narrative (stale signals)",
"physical / trade-flow disruption chatter (thin, single-source)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"data_sparsity_last_72h",
"stale_context_overhang"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-24h-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, gold futures directional bias remains unclear (rangebound / mixed) because the admitted corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives and lacks fresh confirming catalysts.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy / yields narrative (stale)",
"gold trade/logistics disruption items (thin, low-diversity)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh_evidence_gap"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 32,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-6h-001",
"B-gold-24h-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_last_72h",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "No material, market-mapped gold drivers with timestamps inside the last 72h were admitted; most available items are ~30+ days old."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Dominant narratives in the provided corpus are older than the fast-decision windows; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "With low freshness confidence, any new macro/geopolitical update could quickly flip directional bias."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while fresh (<=24h) evidence for real rates/USD/geopolitical risk/ETF flows is absent or non-directional."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if a fresh catalyst arrives (e.g., sharp rates/USD impulse or verified geopolitical escalation) creating a signed directional score beyond ±20."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch only if fresh opposing evidence appears against the first emerging direction within a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation conditions)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 1,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market gold resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Most provided signals are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 and are therefore treated as stale (>72h) at snapshot time 2026-04-08.",
"A fresh risk seed exists (2026-04-08) but is not confidently mappable to gold directional pressure due to missing materialised evidence and non-gold-specific framing; therefore direction remains neutral/mixed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}