Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: N/A
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_last_72h (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-08 09:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-6h-001 Gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed due to insufficient fresh (<=72h) driver evidence; any residual support from risk/macro themes is stale. 56 mixed fading 6h false 82
gold B-gold-24h-001 Over the next 24h, gold futures directional bias remains unclear (rangebound / mixed) because the admitted corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives and lacks fresh confirming catalysts. 54 mixed stable 24h false 82

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260408T090000Z-gold",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-6h-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed due to insufficient fresh (<=72h) driver evidence; any residual support from risk/macro themes is stale.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (stale signals)",
 "real_rates / policy narrative (stale signals)",
 "physical / trade-flow disruption chatter (thin, single-source)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "data_sparsity_last_72h",
 "stale_context_overhang"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-24h-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, gold futures directional bias remains unclear (rangebound / mixed) because the admitted corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives and lacks fresh confirming catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy / yields narrative (stale)",
 "gold trade/logistics disruption items (thin, low-diversity)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh_evidence_gap"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 32,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-6h-001",
 "B-gold-24h-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_last_72h",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "No material, market-mapped gold drivers with timestamps inside the last 72h were admitted; most available items are ~30+ days old."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Dominant narratives in the provided corpus are older than the fast-decision windows; stale suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "With low freshness confidence, any new macro/geopolitical update could quickly flip directional bias."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while fresh (<=24h) evidence for real rates/USD/geopolitical risk/ETF flows is absent or non-directional."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if a fresh catalyst arrives (e.g., sharp rates/USD impulse or verified geopolitical escalation) creating a signed directional score beyond ±20."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch only if fresh opposing evidence appears against the first emerging direction within a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation conditions)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 1,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market gold resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Most provided signals are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 and are therefore treated as stale (>72h) at snapshot time 2026-04-08.",
 "A fresh risk seed exists (2026-04-08) but is not confidently mappable to gold directional pressure due to missing materialised evidence and non-gold-specific framing; therefore direction remains neutral/mixed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}