Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: HG
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-08T05:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-1 | Near-term narrative flow is skewed toward tighter copper supply / supportive demand (energy transition + infrastructure), implying upside bias for copper futures. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B-copper-2 | Trade-policy and industrial-policy headlines are more likely to express as volatility risk than a clean directional down-move in the next 6 hours. | 58 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-copper-2026-04-08T05:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-1", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term narrative flow is skewed toward tighter copper supply / supportive demand (energy transition + infrastructure), implying upside bias for copper futures.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply_disruption", "energy_transition_demand", "industrial_demand", "inventory_exchange_stocks" ], "contradicted_by": [ "trade_policy_uncertainty_can_reduce_risk_appetite_or_hit_marginal_demand" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-2", "market": "copper", "claim": "Trade-policy and industrial-policy headlines are more likely to express as volatility risk than a clean directional down-move in the next 6 hours.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 77, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-1", "B-copper-2" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 14, "B": 1, "C": 1, "D": 30, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "anchor_time_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z", "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6, "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3, "stale_gt_72h_context_present": true } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "copper", "level": "medium", "detail": "Several supporting narratives span weeks; current direction is supported by fresh updates, but longer-span themes can persist even if price regime changes." }, { "risk_flag": "policy_volatility_risk", "market": "copper", "level": "medium", "detail": "Trade/industrial policy threads can create headline-driven whipsaw even without true counter-evidence in the current admitted set." }, { "risk_flag": "timestamp_skew_observed", "market": "copper", "level": "low", "detail": "Input flight-plan timestamp is earlier than some evidence timestamps; recency anchoring used the latest observed evidence time for weighting." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive supply/demand headlines persist without fresh opposing evidence over the next 6h window." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy / industrial-policy headline cadence increases inside the next 6h window." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent, fresh (<2h) opposing records appear that directly indicate demand shock, supply relief, or visible inventory build." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 9, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as 'copper'.", "No explicit contradiction objects were present in the provided 5B payload; reversal logic therefore remained conservative and did not trigger kill-switch.", "Timeseries buckets are derived from minimal timestamp anchors available at trend level (latest evidence timestamps), not full per-record distributions." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }